NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs Stars Game 7 (Sunday, May 5)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs Stars Game 7 (Sunday, May 5) article feature image

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Golden Knights vs. Stars Odds

Sunday, May 5
7:30 p.m. ET
TBS & truTV
Golden Knights Odds+115
Stars Odds-140
+120o / -145u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Golden Knights vs. Stars odds for Game 7 on Sunday, May 5 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

Game 7 is what the playoffs are all about. The defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights take on the Dallas Stars in the Big D., and we get to see who takes on the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2 of the playoffs.

Vegas came out on top in Game 6 when goaltender Adin Hill swept fans off their feet with a 23-save shutout. The Stars, on the other hand, had a hard time creating legitimate scoring chances.

It’s do-or-die time for both teams, so let’s see where the value lies for Game 7 with our Golden Knights vs. Stars pick and prediction.

Vegas Golden Knights

What’s interesting about Vegas is that it’s been fairly top-heavy. Not only that, but two of the team's top scorers in this series are defensemen, Brayden McNabb and Noah Hanifin. McNabb is typically not a big scorer, so I don’t foresee his scoring continuing.

Jack Eichel is averaging a point per game while both Mark Stone and Jonathan Marchessault have provided consistent scoring options. However, beyond them, there hasn’t been much else.

The Knights’ 5-on-5 play has been particularly terrible these playoffs – which makes the prospect of them reaching seven games a feat of its own. Offensively, they’re ranked 14th in expected goals with a 41.37 xGF% and defensively with a 3.81 xGA/60.

During this series, the power play has served a prominent role, and both teams have scored at a clip of more than 25% with the man advantage. Throughout the season, though, Vegas was fairly average during special teams.

It’s unsurprising that Hill’s return to the ice resulted in success for the Knights. Friday's shutout victory proved that Hill thrives in a playoff atmosphere, with a career .933 SV% and a Stanley Cup ring to boot.

Even if things go wrong with Hill, Logan Thompson has also been a strong force in net with a .921 SV% and 5.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in four starts.

Dallas Stars

Both Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston have served massive roles this series each with three goals. However, the Stars haven’t gotten a ton of production from their top forwards with Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Tyler Seguin.

Miro Heiskanen has produced well so far, but defensively, he's been a liability as a -8 in this series.

Dallas’ 5-on-5 game has thrived not only during the regular season but also in this series. It’s played to a third-best 58.63 xGF% and a fifth-best 2.69 xGA/60.

Between these two teams, the Stars have the highest chance to succeed. Their penalty kill has taken a bit of a hit, but I fully expect it to get back on track; they succeeded 82% of the time this season.

Aside from a mediocre regular season, Jake Oettinger has picked up the slack in the playoffs. Even with a dominant Game 6, the Stars couldn’t pull a win. In these six games, Oettinger is playing to a superb .921 SV% and a 2.0 GSAx.

Golden Knights vs. Stars

Betting Pick & Prediction

Throughout the series, it seemed like the Stars had taken control. Yet, the Knights continue to show why they’re the defending champs.

Dallas has been the better team all season, and with Jake Oettinger playing the way he has been, who knows the potential here? In reality, the Stars should’ve won the series in six, but they couldn’t get traction in Game 6, and Hill was a force in the crease.

To add to that, 79% of the teams that win Game 5 end up winning the series. This series’ Game 5 winner was the Stars. I also think they’re the better team because they have more consistency. Vegas is definitely intriguing with the trade deadline acquisitions it made, but Dallas has held strong all season.

Because picking the Stars moneyline is at -155, I’m going with Dallas 3-Way Moneyline at +105 to get the best value. This series has been close, but only one has gone into overtime, which makes me believe a 60-minute/in-regulation win for Dallas is the way to go.

Pick: Dallas Stars 3-Way Moneyline (+110 at DraftKings or Betfred)

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