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Islanders vs. Capitals Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Washington

Islanders vs. Capitals Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Washington article feature image
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Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Ovechkin.

  • The Capitals host the Islanders on Tuesday night in a battle between teams headed in opposite directions.
  • The Islanders are on a five-game losing streak while the Capitals are gearing up for the playoffs.
  • Grant White breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Islanders vs. Capitals Odds

Islanders Odds +150
Capitals Odds -185
Over/Under 6 (+100 / -120)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Only one point separates the Washington Capitals from the third spot in the Metropolitan Division, and they have a game in hand over the team they are chasing, the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Although moving up to third hardly seems like an advantage, it would prevent the Caps from facing one of the top two teams in the conference. Expect them to come ready to compete as they open a home-and-home series with the New York Islanders.

Islanders Struggling on Both Ends

The Islanders have headed for the exit early this season as they have dropped five straight games coming into tonight’s contest. They aren’t getting much done on either end of the ice, and that’s reflected in their production and output metrics.

Their most recent contest was particularly disappointing. After the Carolina Hurricanes’ backup goalie Antti Raanta had to leave with an injury, the Islanders tallied just one goal against third-stringer Pyotr Kochetkov. If the Isles couldn’t capitalize against Kochetkov, they’ll have their hands full against the playoff-bound Caps.

Offensively, the Islanders have reached their limit, attempting more than seven High-Danger Chances at five-on-five just once over their five-game losing streak. They have also been abysmal at generating Scoring Chances as they have put up more than 25 Scoring Chances just once over the losing streak. They haven’t generated any offensive momentum as they have totaled just 12 goals over that span, failing to record more than three in a game.

Things look even worse defensively as the Islanders chase the puck in their own end, allowing a concerning amount of opportunities. Four of their past five opponents have attempted at least 10 Quality Chances, with a five-game average of 13.0 per game. The more concerning trend is that the Islanders have been out-chanced in every game. It’s no wonder they’ve given up 23 goals over their losing streak, including 16 over their past three.

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Capitals Offense Primed to Bounce Back

You wouldn’t know it from looking at their recent sample, but the Capitals are a top-10 scoring team in the league. Still, they’ve been limited to three or fewer goals in four straight games. Those subpar performances have dropped their shooting percentage to 9.1% over their four-game sample, below their season-long average of 10.7%.

There are a couple of reasons support why we’re anticipating growth from the Caps over their coming games.

First, they are playing the defensively absent Islanders, who, as noted, have been unable to prevent chances or scoring lately.

Second, we’ve seen improvements in their offensive metrics in each of their past four outings. The Capitals have increased their shots per game from 27 to 39, maintaining their above-average possession metrics across all strengths. Third, it also helps that the Caps are at home, where they’ve attempted no fewer than 12 High-Danger Chances across all strengths in any of their previous four games.

Goaltending has been a bit of an issue for the Capitals, but Ilya Samsonov is heading in the right direction with his recent performances. In three of his past five starts, the Russian netminder has posted above-average save percentages, going 3-1-1 over that stretch. Samsonov can build some momentum heading into the playoffs with a solid outing tonight against the Islanders.

Islanders vs. Capitals Pick

These teams are headed in opposite directions to end the season. The Islanders have missed out on the playoffs, which has led to some subpar performances over the past week.

Conversely, the Capitals are gearing up for a postseason run, hoping to catch the Pens for third in the division. We give the Caps a more significant advantage than what is reflected in the betting market. Washington is worth a play on the moneyline up to the -200 range.

Pick: Capitals Moneyline (-178, FanDuel)

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