NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Islanders vs Flyers
(Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Mathew Barzal.
Islanders vs. Flyers Odds
| Islanders Odds | +105 |
| Flyers Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -124 /+103 |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Philadelphia Flyers on Monday, April 1 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
With these two teams separated by five points in the Eastern Conference standings, this is a crucial matchup in terms of both teams' playoff hopes.
With an 0-3-1 record in their last four games, the Flyers slipped out of third place in the Metropolitan Division on Saturday, and into the second wild-card spot. They're now the closest team for the Islanders to target. With nine games remaining and two games in hand, Patrick Roy's group can narrow the gap to three points with a win onMonday.
Earlier in the year, the two sides split a pair of low-scoring games at UBS Arena. Here's why bettors should look to the road 'dogs Monday night.
With a record of 3-7-1 since the March 8 trade deadline, the Islanders have not done much to improve their playoff hopes during the last month. Over the last 10 games, they've been well below average at 5-on-5, controlling just 46.16% of expected goals. Their team shooting percentage of 6.58% is also among the lowest in the league.
The numbers don't look any better on special teams. The power play has clicked at a league-low 7.9% since the deadline, and the penalty kill ranks 27th at 73.9%. That all adds up to just two games since the deadline in which the Islanders have scored more than three goals, and they've given up four or more on seven occasions.
That's an environment that is tough for goalies, even ones as talented as Ilya Sorokin. While he still has a winning record at 22-19-11, he's at an uncharacteristic minus-5.1 goals saved above expected this season and has seen his goals-against average edge up over three for the first time in his NHL career.
Semyon Varlamov started the last two games, earning a win against the Panthers and a loss against the Lightning, and has slightly better numbers for the year. The Islanders are heading into a back-to-back set, also hosting Chicago on Tuesday, so the pair should split the duties.
As the Islanders have faltered down the home stretch, so have the Flyers. They're 3-6-2 since the deadline and their last two games have been dreadful losses — 4-1 in Montreal on Thursday, then 5-1 at home to Chicago on Saturday.
Perhaps the Flyers deserve better results. Over the last 10 games, they've put up a solid expected goals share of 53.40% at 5-on-5, which ranks them in the top 10 in the league.
But they have a league-worst PDO of .939 during that stretch, their scorers are connecting on just 7.36% of their shots and they're dealing with a league-worst team save percentage of 86.77% at 5-on-5. Furthermore, their penalty kill since the deadline ranks 31st and their power play is 24th.
The controversy surrounding Sean Couturier's healthy scratches has blown over, but the team's new captain continues to play fourth-line minutes and doesn't have a point in his five games back in the lineup. And on defense, Rasmus Ristolainen and Jamie Drysdale remain on the injured list.
The big news of the week for the Flyers — literally — was the arrival of 6'7" goaltender Ivan Fedotov from Russia on Friday. He backed up Samuel Ersson against the Blackhawks on Saturday, but it's most likely that he'll get his first NHL start next weekend, when Philadelphia plays back-to-back games against Buffalo and Columbus.
Left to carry a much bigger load than expected following the unexpected departure of Carter Hart, the rookie Ersson has maintained a 21-16-7 record. But his goals saved above expected has dipped to minus-5.3 and his save percentage has fallen to .892 for the year after a rough month of March, when he recorded a 3.5 goals-against average and .868 save percentage.
Islanders vs. Flyers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The previous games between these two teams this season were both low-scoring affairs — a 3-2 win for the Islanders on Nov. 22 and a 1-0 shootout victory for the Flyers three nights later.
And while both sides have had a tough time keeping pucks out of their net in recent weeks, they've also had trouble scoring, hence the low Over/Under of 5.5.
If Roy decides to go back to Varlamov in an effort to secure the two points, the Islanders should have the edge in the goalie duel. They also happen to be road underdogs, creating some nice betting value.
Look for the visitors to steal the two points and tighten up the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Pick: Islanders Moneyline (+102 at FanDuel | Play to -110)
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