NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Islanders vs Lightning (Saturday, March 30)
SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 7: Ilya Sorokin #30 of the New York Islanders stretches during a time out in the second period against the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center on March 7, 2024 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Andreea Cardani/NHLI via Getty Images)
Islanders vs. Lightning Odds
| Islanders Odds | +130 |
| Lightning Odds | -155 |
| Over / Under | 6 -125o / +105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday, March 30 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Lightning have rattled off an 8-1-1 tear, and are suddenly eight points clear of Detroit in the Wildcard race. They have been one of the leagues best home teams with a record of 22-9-4. With those notes in mind, their price tag of -150 might look a little short to some bettors versus an Islanders side that has been highly inconsistent.
I'll outline the relevant game notes and give out my best bet below.
The Islanders can still realistically grab a playoff spot, as a 7-3-0 run would likely be enough to garner the last Wild Card berth. Patrick Roy's crew has had already offered some ugly letdowns recently though, like we saw in a critical game in Detroit last week, and Sunday versus the Devils.
Just banking on the Islanders to win because of the desperation narrative is not an overly rational idea. Their recent level of urgency has been more or less fine on most occasions, and is reflected by the fact that they are owning more of the overall chances this month.
The greater problem has been their defensive breakdowns coming at the untimely times, and that is the area of consistency the group needs to find. They played a great game at home versus Winnipeg Saturday, and were sharp in Thursday's win over an excellent Panthers side. Sandwiched in the middle though, was a 4-0 loss at home to the floundering Devils.
Both Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin are among the leagues better goaltenders, and are going to make the vast majority of saves coming on shots where they are set and square.
Varlamov has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup. He has played to a +3.5 GSAx and .911 save % across 22 appearances.
There is no disputing that the Lightning have been performing like an elite team over the last stretch of play. They are 8-1-1, and own an expected goal % of 52.23. The question is, how much better really are the Lightning than they showed all season long?
Regular listeners/readers of my work will know that I started viewing the Knights as a team to look out for as soon as they played one week of decent hockey. So maybe it's unfair that I'm still unsold on the Lightning. I have far less conviction towards the current pool of talent on Tampa's roster than Vegas though.
Tampa's bottom three lines of the forward corps looks better than it has previously this year, but is still not a contending unit.
Mitchell Chaffee has offered a boost to the third line alongside Nick Paul and Michael Eyssimont, but still, that unit owns just a 41.2% expected goal share. Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli have both offered disappointing seasons at even strength. Alongside Brandon Hagel, the Lightning's current second line owns just a 42.9% expected goal share.
The depth on the defensive unit is still a concerning as well. Especially if we are to see Matt Dumba's form trend closer to what it was the rest of the last two seasons. I talked up Dumba as a reason the Coyotes could overachieve this offseason. The 29-year-old defender was coming off his worst season at the NHL level, and seemed a logical a bounce-back candidate.
Playing on a one year "show me" contract, he struggled mightily in 58 games with Arizona though, and a eight game sample shouldn't mean he is viewed as a quality top four defender again just yet.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is confirmed as Tampa's starter for this game. He has played to a -2.5 GSAx and .898 save % throughout 45 appearances this season.
Islanders vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite the average contention from most any NHL media, I still believe the Lightning are a side to sell on right now. They are in the midst of their best run of the season, but in time the flaws which remain on the roster should be exposed once again. They proved me wrong in a favorable spot versus the Bruins on Wednesday, but I still believe they are being overvalued ahead of this matchup.
The Islanders played one of their best games of the year last time out in Florida, and they were strong in their win over Winnipeg Saturday. If they can play a similar game here, +130 is going to be a great price in a rock-fight type matchup. By no means am I excited to bet on the Islanders, but at +130 we have the price to see if they can avoid another letdown performance.
At the current price of +130 there is value backing the Islanders, but I would stop right at +130.
Pick: New York Islanders ML (Play to +130)
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