NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Islanders vs Oilers (Monday, November 13)
Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid #97 of the Edmonton Oilers
Islanders vs. Oilers Odds
| Islanders Odds | +146 |
| Oilers Odds | -172 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -106 / -114 |
With just two games on tap in the NHL on Monday, all eyes will be on Northern Alberta.
One day after parting ways with head coach Jay Woodcroft, the struggling Edmonton Oilers will be looking to hit the reset button on their season as they host the New York Islanders in the first official NHL head-coaching outing for Kris Knoblauch.
At 3-9-1, the Oilers' poor results have been one of the biggest stories of the first month of the NHL season. And with an 0-3-1 record over their last four games and fans back at UBS Arena starting to call for a coaching change themselves, the Islanders could be the perfect slump-busters.
Let's dive into our NHL pick and prediction for Islanders vs. Oilers on Monday, November 13.
The Islanders will appreciate a change of scenery as they kick off their four-game Pacific Division road trip in Edmonton on Monday.
After a solid 5-2-2 start to the season, they've gone 0-3-1 over their last four games. With three of those losses coming on home ice, "Fire Lambert" chants were directed at the head coach on Saturday when the Islanders lost 4-1 to the Capitals.
What's the problem?
Well, the Islanders have been outscored by a 17-8 margin over those last four games, so there are issues at both ends of the ice.
At 5-on-5, their expected goals share is right in the middle of the pack, at 49.77%, but it's rarely a good sign when a defenseman leads a team in scoring.
Noah Dobson is doing his bit, with 12 points in 13 games, and is helping to fuel a decent power play.
But Bo Horvat is the only forward in double-digit points (4-6-10) and Brock Nelson is the only player with more than five goals (6-2-8).
Ranked 30th in goals per game, the Islanders aren't providing enough run support. Semyon Varlamov has been outstanding with a .940 save percentage and 6.3 goals saved above expected, but he's 2-3-0 in his five starts — and both his wins were shutouts.
Meanwhile, Iyla Sorokin is at an uncharacteristic -1.1 goals saved above expected. His save percentage is a decent .907, but it's hardly the Vezina level that fans are used to seeing. And with an average of 3.24 goals allowed per game, that's not stingy enough to counterbalance the Islanders' lack of scoring.
The pair have been alternating starts, and Varlamov took the loss on Saturday. That suggests that Sorokin will get the nod on Monday. He's 2-2 in his career against Edmonton.
Just one injury item to note: Defenseman Adam Pelech has missed three of the last four games while dealing with a lower-body injury.
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There's barely been a dull moment for the Oilers, who will be looking to log their first multi-game winning streak of the year when they face the Islanders on Monday.
On Saturday night Zach Hyman's natural hat trick fuelled a solid 4-1 win in Seattle, but the damage had already been done. Head coach Woodcroft and defensive assistant Dave Manson were shown the door on Sunday with Knoblauch and Paul Coffey stepping into their positions.
It's an understatement to say that the Oilers have underperformed this season. Despite a quiet Connor McDavid, who's currently on a three-game pointless streak, Edmonton leads the league in expected goals share at 5-on-5 (57.82%).
And with a team shooting percentage of just 6.49% at 5-on-5, the Oilers have a brutal PDO of .954, which suggests that they're due for a change of fortune in the not-too-distant future.
Enter Knoblauch, long regarded as a rising star in the coaching ranks, for his first NHL head gig.
Ken Holland on the decision to fire Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, and hire Kris Knoblauch. pic.twitter.com/y3xcJ0EpqP
— JayOnSC (@JayOnSC) November 13, 2023
Knoblauch has a pre-existing relationship with McDavid, dating back to their junior hockey days with the Erie Otters.
A new voice in the dressing room could also provide the clean slate that should help the Oilers players stop gripping their sticks quite so tightly.
Of course, they're also going to have to get some saves.
Assuming Edmonton continues to run with Stuart Skinner, he's at -7.8 goals saved above expected so far this season. But he did post a steady 17-save outing against a passive Seattle team on Saturday night.
Islanders vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite all the losing, Edmonton opened as the heavy favorite for this matchup, and the line has only strengthened.
With the new coach bump they'll get with Knoblauch and the signs that they're trending upward after Saturday's win in Seattle, that actually does make sense.
After watching Edmonton drop a 2-1 decision to the NHL's worst team in San Jose last Thursday, the Oilers very well may lay another egg in a game that looks like an easy win, so proceed with caution here.
The Islanders aren't as bad as their recent record suggests, but it seems unlikely that they'll be able to overcome an Oilers group that's getting a bit of a do-over and that will have a chance to play freely after a brutal opening month.
Look for the Knoblauch era to begin with a multi-goal win to send the fans home happy in Edmonton.
Pick: Oilers -1.5 (+150 at Caesars) | Play to: +125
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