NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Islanders vs Red Wings (Thursday, February 29)
(Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) Pictured: Mathew Barzal
Islanders vs. Red Wings Odds
| Islanders Odds | +105 |
| Red Wings Odds | -126 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100o / -122u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Detroit Red Wings on Thursday, February 29 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The New York Islanders head to Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Red Wings. This marks the second of three meetings between these teams this year, with Detroit having earned a 4-3 overtime victory when they met in New York back in October.
The Red Wings are riding a six-game winning streak, while the Islanders are fresh off a momentous overtime win against the Dallas Stars.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make an Islanders vs. Red Wings prediction and pick.
When the Islanders replaced Lane Lambert with Patrick Roy, the hope was that a new voice would propel them toward a playoff push. Thus far, the results have been mixed.
New York is 5-5-3 since hiring Roy, but hasn't won in regulation since Feb. 8. The Islanders are tied for 21st in the NHL in points percentage since the coaching change, and are seven points behind the Tampa Bay Lightning for the Eastern Conference's final wild-card spot with two games in hand. If New York wants to turn its playoff aspirations into a reality, it needs to start rattling off wins soon.
Despite the Islanders' middling record since hiring Roy, there have been some encouraging signs. Mathew Barzal has been at the top of his game, posting 15 points in the 13 games since Roy took over. Goaltender Ilya Sorokin, whose season-long numbers are down, has given up two or fewer goals in five of nine starts since the coaching change. Additionally, New York's underlying defensive numbers at 5-on-5 under Roy are excellent. The Islanders are second in the NHL in xGA/60, first in HDCA/60 and 11th in xGF% with a mark of 51.79.
Offensively, though, New York owns the league's seventh-worst xGF/60 at 5-on-5 over the past 13 games, and while the Islanders' even-strength defensive play has drastically improved, they continue to be let down by their league-worst penalty kill.
Detroit has been one of the NHL’s best stories this season and is well-positioned to break its seven-year playoff drought. Thanks to a six-game winning streak, the Red Wings have begun to grab a stranglehold on the Eastern Conference’s top wild-card spot.
However, a closer look at Detroit’s recent run renders it a bit fluky. Not only have just three of the Red Wings’ six-straight wins come in regulation, but the underlying numbers indicate they have generally been outplayed and have been the beneficiaries of some unsustainable puck luck.
Over this winning streak, Detroit’s 2.25 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 ranks sixth-worst in the NHL, and its 2.94 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 ranks seventh-worst. The Red Wings have generated the fourth-fewest 5-on-5 high-danger chances per game, and have allowed the fifth-most. Their 43.32 xGF% over this span is the league’s third-worst mark.
Somehow, though, the Red Wings have allowed the fewest 5-on-5 goals per game in the NHL across this stretch, and have scored the second-most. Thus, their PDO over these six games is easily No. 1 in the league.
While Detroit's overall play of late hasn't been as strong as the results suggest, the good news is that some of its top forwards are heating up. Patrick Kane is riding a nine-game point streak and looking more like his old self, while Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat have posted 10 points apiece across nine games since the start of February. Lastly, goaltender Alex Lyon continues to perform well, sporting a 2.69 GAA, a .914 SV% and 6.4 GSAx.
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Islanders vs. Red Wings
Betting Pick & Prediction
The value lies in betting on Detroit's luck to finally run out. At even strength, the Islanders should be able to keep the Red Wings' offense in check, and New York's top two lines should be able to generate enough opportunities to get a few pucks past Lyon.
The Islanders will, of course, run into issues if they make a habit of going to the penalty box, as Detroit's top-10 power play should have the edge over their league-worst penalty kill.
Still, I'm backing the road 'dogs and am expecting them to ride the momentum from their impressive win in Dallas.
Pick: Islanders Moneyline (+115 at PointsBet | Play to +105)
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