Jets vs Avalanche Odds, Preview: Game 3 Prediction
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Jets vs. Avalanche Odds, Preview
| Jets Odds | +145 |
| Avalanche Odds | -170 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Jets vs Avalanche Game 3 on Friday, April 26 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Avalanche did their job, splitting the series-opening homestead in Winnipeg. Now the onus is on the Jets to win at least one contest in Colorado.
We'll evaluate the chances of that happening tonight while previewing the upcoming contest and providing a Jets vs. Avalanche prediction.
Being tied 1-1 is far from a dire situation for the Jets, even if they did host the first two games. However, Winnipeg needs to be at least somewhat concerned about Connor Hellebuyck after he surrendered 10 goals on 77 shots (.870 save percentage) in that span.
To be fair, the Avalanche led the league offensively with 3.68 goals per contest in the regular season, so he drew the toughest matchup possible.
In addition to that, Hellebuyck's minus-1.1 Goals Saved Above Expected suggests he's significantly outperformed Alexandar Georgiev (minus-4.1) in this series.
Even still, the Jets are built around the belief that Hellebuyck is an elite goaltender. His performance so far — even if the competition has been fierce — doesn't align with what he's supposed to be capable of, and unless he rebounds, it's hard to see Winnipeg getting past the first round.
Winnipeg has more to be happy about offensively. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele have been fantastic, each providing two goals and four points thus far.
Also, the Jets have six players who have found the back of the net, so they've been getting a healthy amount of secondary scoring in the early stages of the series.
It would be nice if their midseason acquisitions chipped in a bit more, though. Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan, who were added from New Jersey and Montreal, respectively, haven't recorded a point yet.
They're set to play on the second line alongside Nikolaj Ehlers, who hasn't factored onto the scoresheet either, so that's a unit to keep a close eye on tonight. If they keep struggling, perhaps the trio will be broken up.
In the regular season, Colorado was a team that relied heavily on its superstars to the point where Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen directly scored 30.8% of the team's total goals and MacKinnon produced 46.4% of the Avalanche's offense alone.
By contrast, nearly every Colorado player has contributed to the attack against the Jets.
MacKinnon (one goal, three points), Rantanen (three assists) and elite defenseman Cale Makar (one goal, five points) have all excelled in the playoff series, but they've had plenty of company, including some less-expected sources such as third-liners Ross Colton (two goals) and Miles Wood (two goals).
There are already eight different Avalanche players with at least one marker and 13 who have recorded a point.
If the Avalanche can continue to get that kind of scoring throughout their lineup going forward, they might be in line for a long postseason run.
Those depth scorers still have plenty to prove, though, as does Georgiev. He did turn aside 28-of-30 shots after allowing a disastrous seven goals on 23 shots in the series opener, but what's more concerning is that those kinds of wild swings are nothing new.
Although Georgiev was able to hold the competition to one or no goals in 14 starts during the regular season, he also surrendered four or more tallies a staggering 25 times (26 if you include Game 1 of the first round).
Teams typically need at least adequate goaltending to succeed in the playoffs. In fact, the worst Stanley Cup winner since 1986-87 in terms of goals allowed per game in the playoffs was the 1991-92 Pittsburgh Penguins, who finished at 3.00.
So Georgiev, who posted a 3.02 GAA and a .897 save percentage in 63 outings in 2023-24, is the subject of some concern.
The silver lining is that he did notably worse on the road (3.30 GAA, .892 save percentage) than at home (2.75 GAA, .902) during the campaign, so the series moving to Colorado should aid him.
Jets vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Avalanche, as a group, should be thrilled to be back in Denver after posting a commanding 31-9-1 home record, compared to their 19-16-6 road showing in the regular season.
For that reason, the Avalanche are considered heavy favorites going into Saturday's game.
Frankly, I agree with the consensus, and I want to see Hellebuyck return to his normal self before recommending any bet that favors Winnipeg.
Rather than completely dismiss the possibility of a Jets' bounce back, though, I'll sidestep the issue by suggesting the over of 6.5 goals.
After all, Colorado's offense is clicking at the right time. Meanwhile, Georgiev does tend to do better at home, but better isn't the same as good.
Besides, taking the over offers a considerably higher potential return than selecting the Avalanche on the moneyline.
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-105 | PointsBet) | Play to -120)
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