NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Capitals (Saturday, April 13)
Lightning vs Capitals Odds
| Lightning Odds | -150 |
| Capitals Odds | +125 |
| Over / Under | 6 -120 / +100 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals on Saturday, April 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Capitals' hopes of a surprising playoff berth took a huge hit in Thursday night's 4-2 loss to the Sabres. With three games to go, they sit one point back of Pittsburgh for the final spot. A 3-0 run would likely still be enough for them to get in, but that will be no easy task for a team that will be betting underdogs in all three games — this includes Saturday's date with the Lightning, who are 11-3-2 since the trade deadline.
Continue on for my Lightning vs Capitals pick and prediction for Saturday.
The Lightning are essentially locked into being the top wild card seed with 96 points, and are most likely to matchup against Boston in Round 1.
At this point Jon Cooper's side just needs to stay healthy, and continue playing a sharp team game ahead of the playoffs. Allowing Nikita Kucherov to build on his absurd total of 141 points to help secure the Hart Trophy would also be a bonus.
The Lightning have displayed a far sharper team game since the trade deadline. Anthony Duclair has been a good fit in the top-six, and Matt Dumba has offered improved play on the teams third defensive pairing.
In 16 games since the trade deadline the Lightning have allowed only 2.63 goals against per game. Their 2.79 xGA/60 in that span ranks fourth best in the NHL. And as the Lightning have picked up their defensive level, superstar netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has settled into elite form once again.
Vasilevskiy rested on Thursday versus Ottawa, and will presumably get the start here as a result. He has played to a -1.1 GSAx and .901 save percentage across 50 appearances this season.
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Coach Spencer Carbery's Capitals have told a special story this season, and against all odds remain in the thick of the playoff race.
The Capitals had the perfect combination of goaltending, luck and timely scoring to sneak out a critical game in Detroit Tuesday 2-1. They did not get that same combination to work in Thursday's loss in Buffalo, which could ultimately be the difference in securing a playoff berth.
Over the last eight games the Capitals have generated only 2.79 xGF/60, which is the seventh-worst mark in the league. They have scored just 1.75 goals for per game in that span. Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome and John Carlson are the only Capitals currently offering meaningful offensive contributions.
The last 10 Capitals' games have seen combined totals average just 5.4 goals per game. With limited offensive upside, they have looked to simply hang around and avoid the types of high-danger chances that Charlie Lindgren can't handle.
Lindgren has fully overtaken the starting job due to his excellent play this season, and should be Saturday's starter. He has played to a +7.6 GSAx and .908 save percentage in 47 appearances this season.
Lightning vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Capitals seemingly have one path to victory in this near do-or-die matchup, and that is keeping the Lightning to a modest offensive total. The Caps' haven't scored more than two goals in eight straight games and a visual observation of their play would tell you that run hasn't just been bad luck.
Spencer Carbery has done a great job of enforcing sound defensive structure upon his side this season, which lacks much in the way of game breaking talent.
The Lightning have been playing sharp defensive hockey of late, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is trending into top form ahead of the playoffs too.
This looks like a good spot to target the under. When true to form the Capitals are one of the lowest event teams in the league, and I believe we will see the Capitals bring an organized defensive effort with their season on the line here.
Anything better than -110 is worthy of a bet on the under 6.
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