NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Maple Leafs (Monday, November 6)
Mike Carlson/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Goalie Jonas Johansson #31 of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Lightning Odds | +126 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -152 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -124 / +102 |
Familiarity breeds contempt. And after their playoff series in the last two springs, it's always a fun night of hockey when the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning get together.
It hasn't been smooth sailing for either of the Atlantic Division rivals to start the season. The Leafs are on a four-game slide and looking to get back into the win column, while the Lightning are trying to get by without their star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
They're in the midst of a big crowd, but both teams are still hovering near the playoff bar, with the Lightning holding a one-point edge in the standings.
With the betting line favoring the home side, here's why Monday's game represents a solid value opportunity for bettors.
The Lightning will be playing the third game of a four-game road trip on Monday. After beating the Ottawa Senators 6-4 on Saturday, they're now 1-3-1 for the year away from Amalie Arena.
And while the Lightning certainly miss the injured Vasilevskiy, they've been delivering plenty of offense to help support their fill-in goalies. Tampa Bay ranks seventh, at 3.64 goals per game, with the usual suspects of Kucherov, Point, Stamkos and Hedman all at a point per game or better.
The Lightning don't have great 5-on-5 numbers — their expected goal share ranks 26th at 45.87%. But they're very strong on special teams — third on the power play and seventh on the penalty kill.
Give credit to Jonas Johansson, too. With just 35 career NHL games on his resume before this season, the towering 28-year-old has managed his big workload very admirably. He has made nine starts and sits second in total minutes played, behind only Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck. And Johansson has posted a very respectable record of 5-1-3, with a .916 save percentage and 5.5 goals saved above expected.
The Lightning are on a back-to-back, also playing Tuesday in Montreal. And while the Leafs and Canadiens are currently tied in the Atlantic Division standings, it seems likely that Johansson will go against Toronto while Matt Tomkins starts in Montreal.
One lineup change to note: on Sunday, the Lightning assigned forward Waltteri Merela to AHL Syracuse. That makes room for the return of high-energy winger Tyler Motte, who suffered a hand injury in the opening game of the season.
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Heading into the second game of a five-game homestand, the streaky Leafs are 0-2-2 in their last four games after dropping a 6-4 decision to Buffalo on Saturday.
The good news is that Auston Matthews seems to have come out of his slumber. He recorded his third hat trick of the season against the Sabres and now leads the NHL with 11 goals. William Nylander has been a model of consistency, with points in every game this year, and Mitch Marner and John Tavares have been their usual productive selves.
But beyond that, secondary scoring has been almost non-existent. And the defense is depleted with the injuries to Timothy Liljegren, Jake McCabe and Conor Timmins.
McCabe and Timmins both skated on Sunday, and McCabe took a regular spot in the defense rotation. He could be a possibility to draw back in on Monday.
In their 5-on-5 play, the Leafs rank only a little ahead of the Lightning, sitting 23rd in expected goals share at 46.96%. The power play has been an important weapon but Toronto's penalty killing hasn't been great. It's ranked 21st at a 75% success rate.
The Leafs' goaltending situation also remains in flux. After a strong start to the year, Joseph Woll has given up nine goals in his last two games. He took the loss against Buffalo, so Ilya Samsonov will likely draw in against the Lightning.
He's 2-1-2 with an .876 save percentage and minus-3.3 goals saved above expected this season, but has earned points for the Leafs in his last two outings, giving up just five total goals in extra-time losses to Nashville and Boston.
Samsonov did start for Toronto's 4-3 overtime win in Tampa on Oct. 21. He was pulled after giving up three goals on four shots in 13:29 of action. Woll came in and shut the door the rest of the way to deliver the win.
Nevertheless, it looks like Samsonov is next up in the rotation as the Leafs try to find a way to snap out of their funk.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite the Leafs' recent woes, the oddsmakers are leaning into their comeback win in Tampa two weeks ago and their playoff-series victory last spring, as well as their home-ice advantage. Even though Toronto is only 2-3-0 at Scotiabank Arena so far this season, the home side opened at -156 on the moneyline.
The Maple Leafs will get on track eventually. But it may not be on Monday against a Lightning team that is competing every night, getting leadership from its top players, and getting good scoring support from the bottom half of its lineup.
An opening moneyline of +130 offers tremendous incentive to back the road dogs on Monday.
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