NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Blues (Monday, February 19)
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Maple Leafs vs. Blues Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -166 |
| Blues Odds | +138 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -102o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. St. Louis Blues on Monday, February 19 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Monday will be a busy day of NHL action, with 10 games on the Presidents' Day slate. Bettors shouldn't sleep on the matinee in St. Louis, where the much-improved Blues will host the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Coming off their biggest offensive outburst of the year Saturday, the Leafs are kicking off a four-game Western Conference road trip, less than a week after they easily dispatched the Blues in their home barn. But Toronto will be missing two key defensemen, and possibly more. Monday's outcome could prove to be very different indeed.
The Maple Leafs are landing in St. Louis following a 9-2 drubbing of the Anaheim Ducks. Auston Matthews is now up to 48 goals for the year after his league-leading sixth hat trick, which is just four shy of Wayne Gretzky's all-time record of 10. The Leafs now sit fourth with 3.57 goals scored per game while their power play ranks second at 28.1% after going 4-for-5 against the Ducks.
The Leafs are right in the middle of the pack at 5-on-5, controlling 50.25% of expected goals. Their goaltending and defense have been topics of conversation all year, but they've done a good job of keeping the puck out of the net lately, allowing just six goals in their last three games.
Martin Jones earned the win against the Ducks, so expect coachSheldon Keefe to turn back to Ilya Samsonov on Monday. He's still at an .881 save percentage and -9.9 goals saved above expected but he has played better since he had his time-out in early January. Samsonov is 6-1-0 in his last seven games.
Beyond the net, though, Toronto has some lineup questions, especially on the blue line. John Tavares practiced Sunday and should be good to go, but Timothy Liljegren, Jake McCabe and William Lagesson are all said to be game-time decisions, plus Morgan Rielly is out with his suspension and Mark Giordano is on leave following the passing of his father.
Defenseman Maxime Lajoie was recalled on an emergency basis Saturday and suited up for his fifth NHL game of the year against the Ducks. On Sunday, the Leafs recalled 25-year-old Marshall Rifai, an undrafted defenseman who will be making his NHL debut if he hits the ice in St. Louis.
The Western Conference wild-card race is still very tight. But with a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games, the Blues have worked their way into a playoff spot after a bumpy start to the year which saw Craig Berube dismissed in mid-December.
Since Drew Bannister took over as coach, the Blues have gone 16-9-1. They still aren't a good puck-possession team, ranked 30th with 42.66% of expected goals at 5-on-5 in the Bannister era. But they're getting good goaltending, with a 5-on-5 team save percentage of .9239 and Jordan Binnington up to 11.2 goals saved above expected. And their offense has been on the uptick for the last month or so, averaging 3.33 goals per game and 32.1% on the power play since Jan. 11.
For St. Louis, Monday's game is the third in a four-game home stand that has seen it beat Edmonton 6-3 before losing 5-2 to Nashville.
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Maple Leafs vs. Blues
Betting Pick & Prediction
Less than a week ago, the Leafs took down the Blues by a 4-1 score at Scotiabank Arena, and limited St. Louis to just 15 shots on goal.
Rielly was serving the first game of his suspension that night, but on Monday, the Leafs will also definitely be missing Giordano and could have more holes after McCabe and Liljegren were banged up against Anaheim.
At 14-6-6, the Leafs do have a strong road record this season. And the odds reflect that, with Toronto opening at -150 on the moneyline.
But with the lineup questions, the travel and the early start Monday, this is a situation in which the Blues' home-ice advantage should be even more pronounced.
A price of +140 on Bet365 as of Sunday afternoon offers a strong incentive to back a home side that, while coming off a loss to Nashville, hasn't lost consecutive games in more than a month.
Pick: Blues Moneyline (+140; Play to +120)
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