NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Pick & Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 (Wednesday, May 10)

NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Pick & Prediction: Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 (Wednesday, May 10) article feature image

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Tkachuk #19 of the Florida Panthers

  • The Panthers look to close out the Maple Leafs at home on Wednesday night.
  • Florida has controlled this series, but Toronto is favored in Game 4, so where is the betting value?
  • Continue read for Carol Schram's Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4 best bet.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Odds

Maple Leafs Odds-120
Panthers Odds+100
Over/Under6.5 (-140 / +114)
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

After the triumph of their first-round series win, are the Toronto Maple Leafs going to go out with a whimper?

Down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers, Toronto will be the first team to face elimination in the second round when Game 4 takes place Wednesday.

The Leafs' swagger has all but vanished against Sergei Bobrovsky and the tenacious Panthers. Meanwhile, Toronto will be starting unproven rookie Joseph Woll in net.

The Panthers continue to ride the wave that fueled their late run into the playoffs, and their first-round upset of the Boston Bruins. Will Florida finish the job and eliminate another powerhouse Wednesday?

Here's the latest on both teams and my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4 betting prediction.

Toronto Maple Leafs

One of the highest-scoring teams in the league during the regular season, the Leafs are without a goal from their core four shooters in this series, though their offensive woes run even deeper as they've scored just two goals in each of their past five games. Over those five games, the power play that clicked at 26% during the regular season has gone just 1-for-11.

Most of the problem has been that two-time Vezina Trophy winner Bobrovsky has turned back the clock in the Panthers' net. At 5-on-5, the two sides have played each other pretty even, although Florida bumped up its expected goals share to 52.83% in Game 3.

And now, the Leafs are forced to make a dramatic change in net with their season on the line. Woll, a 24-year-old with 13 games of regular-season NHL experience, got dinged for Sunday's loss after stepping in for the injured Ilya Samsonov early in the second period. Woll gave up three goals on 21 shots, including Sam Reinhart's overtime winner.

Matt Murray is healthy and available, but hasn't seen any game action in more than a month. So, Sheldon Keefe is handing the reins to Woll, who also played one period in Round 1 and is -1.4 goals saved above expected in the playoffs.

Florida Panthers

It seems like a lifetime ago that the Panthers were down 3-1 to the Bruins, but it's barely been two weeks. Since April 26, the Panthers have strung together six straight wins. They've scored 25 goals in those games and are 5-for-13 on the power play.

Bobrovsky is at 6.0 goals saved above expected — tops among the goalies remaining in the playoffs. That means more than his basic stats, an okay .909 save percentage and a rather meh 3.13 goals-against average.

Matthew Tkachuk has been the embodiment of 'hard to play against' and is second in playoff scoring, tied with Connor McDavid, with 15 points. He has four assists against the Leafs and is leading his team in points, but has yet to score in this series.

Nine Florida players have goals in this series, though Carter Verhaeghe is the only one who has scored more than once. He has two.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Pick

If the Leafs need a reminder that their series isn't over yet, they need only look over to the other bench, where the Panthers methodically erased a 3-1 deficit against the Bruins in Round 1.

It was a perfect example of the old cliche about how the fourth game is always the hardest to win. And that's exactly what Toronto needs to tap into on Wednesday.

Of course, the resilience of this group has been called into question time and time again. Toronto has a chance to re-write that narrative, but it won't be easy against the battle-tested Panthers, who are playing with house money.

And don't look past the fact that the oddsmakers have made Florida home-ice underdogs in Game 4. That's terrific value, even in a year where road teams are regularly skating away with wins.

Pick: Panthers Moneyline (+100) | Play to -120

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