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Oilers vs. Lightning Prediction: NHL Odds & Betting Preview (November 8)

Oilers vs. Lightning Prediction: NHL Odds & Betting Preview (November 8) article feature image
Credit:

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrei Vasilevskiy #88 of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

  • The Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning will face off Tuesday night in primetime.
  • The Lightning enter as moneyline favorites (-180 odds) but Tony Sartori sees value in the over/under.
  • He breaks down the matchup and his betting prediction below.

Oilers vs. Lightning Odds

Oilers Odds +155
Lightning Odds -180
Over/Under 6.5 (-125/+105)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

In Tuesday’s first TNT, we have a tremendously entertaining matchup between the Pacific Division’s Edmonton Oilers and the Atlantic Division’s Tampa Bay Lightning. The home team has now won nine of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs.

Will Tampa Bay continue that streak, or can the Oilers buck the trend and grab a victory on the road?

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Edmonton Oilers

There have now been seven or more total goals scored in each of Edmonton’s last four games, a trend that should continue in this contest. Since they are on the second half of a back-to-back, we can expect goaltender Jack Campbell to take the crease for the Oilers.

In his own words, Campbell has been “pathetic” this year. Sorry, Jack, but no one is going to disagree with you on that one.

Through eight appearances this season, he possesses a .874 SV% and 4.21 GAA. There have been seven or more total goals scored in seven of those eight games.

Among starting goaltenders, Campbell ranks fourth-last in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60). Additionally, the defense in front of the net has been terrible.

At 5v5, Edmonton ranks just 29th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, an offense led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl has no issues finding the back of the net.

This season, the Oilers rank seventh in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5. Last season, this team had two of the best offensive players on the planet but had troubles at the blue line.

So what did they do over the off-season? They did absolutely nothing to remedy the defense and acquired a replacement-level goaltender.

Whenever Campbell is in net, the Over is an automatic bet for this team.


Tampa Bay Lightning

Just like Edmonton, the over has been a good bet for the Lightning this year as there have been seven or more total goals scored in each of their last four games. This trend should continue on Tuesday as the high-powered Tampa Bay offense should feast on the Oilers’ poor defense and goaltending.

At 5v5, the Bolts rank 12th in the league in xGF/60. One of the (many) great decision head coach Jon Cooper has made was pairing Brandon Hagel on the first line with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.

This line clicked instantly as Hagel is a perfect complement by taking the “bumper” role alongside two playmaking superstars when this group is able to set up in the offensive zone. The results are there as this line boasts a 60% expected goals percentage this season.

Surprisingly, the defense has not lived up to their side of the bargain through the first month of the season as Tampa Bay ranks just 27th in the league in xGA/60 at 5v5. While I think that this group will positively regress in that department at some point, It likely will not happen against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Oilers vs. Lightning Pick

The only concern about getting to seven goals in this contest is that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected to start between the pipes for the Bolts. A perennial Vezina Trophy candidate, Vasilevskiy is 4-3-1 this season with a .911 SV% and 2.87 GAA.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 12th in GSAx/60 at 5v5. There is no denying his brilliance in the crease, but he has allowed three or more goals in four straight starts.

Regardless of how good you are in net, McDavid and Draisaitl will fill It at some point. If Vasilevskiy just allows two or three goals once again, then this game should have no issue getting to seven with Campbell slated to start on the other end.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-125) | Play up to (-135)

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