Oilers vs Stars Prediction: NHL Odds, Preview for Wednesday, April 3
Via Glenn James/Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Oettinger #29 of the Dallas Stars.
- Here's our expert's favorite betting pick for Oilers vs. Stars tonight.
Oilers vs. Stars Odds
| Oilers Odds | +105 |
| Stars Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110o / -110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars showdown tonight on Wednesday, April 3 at 9:30 p.m. ET, featuring our expert NHL prediction and pick.
It's a battle between two of the top teams in the Western Conference as the Stars try to maintain their lead over the Colorado Avalanche atop the Central Division while the Oilers try to catch the Vancouver Canucks in the Pacific.
Dallas has just arrived home from a near-perfect four-game road trip, while Edmonton is wrapping up a quick two-game spin through the Central after falling 3-2 to the St. Louis Blues in overtime on Monday.
Both earlier meetings this season resulted in 4-3 road wins, with the Stars prevailing in Edmonton back in November while Evan Bouchard played overtime hero at the American Airlines Center on Feb. 17.
That should change on Wednesday.
Find my Oilers vs. Stars prediction and NHL preview below.
The Oilers’ bounce back from their dreadful start to the season has been incredible. With a record of 27-8-4 since Jan. 1, no team had accumulated more points than Edmonton’s 58 before Tuesday night’s games.
Connor McDavid has been on a tear that has him challenging for his sixth Art Ross Trophy, and he was just named the NHL’s first star for March. Edmonton also leads the league with a 30.2% Power Play since Jan. 1, to go along with a decent Penalty Kill at 80%.
The Oilers’ puck possession game at 5-on-5 has also been terrific — ranking first this season at 56.96%. Over the last 10 games, though, that number has dipped a bit, to 54.88%, which ranks sixth overall. The Oilers are 6-2-2 over those last 10 games — not exactly a slump, but not quite on par with the torrid pace that vaulted them back into playoff contention.
Somewhat surprisingly, that adds up to an offense that ranks fifth in the league since Jan. 1, averaging 3.62 goals per game, while the defense is fourth at a stingy 2.51.
Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have both been steady, with positive Goals Saved Above Expected. Skinner will likely get the nod on Wednesday. In 12 starts since Feb. 24, he has given up more than three goals just once.
The Oilers are healthy.
While the Oilers played their best hockey earlier in the season, the Stars are now rounding into form with the playoffs approaching. They come into Wednesday’s contest as the top team in the Western Conference, riding a seven-game winning streak after outscoring their opponents 16-6 on their just-completed four-game road trip.
The upward trend begins in net, where Jake Oettinger appears to have shaken off his demons from earlier in the year. He’s still at minus-2.6 Goals Saved Above Expected, but he has bumped his Save Percentage back to .900 thanks to his recent 5-0-0 run, where he stopped 113 of 120 shots for a save percentage of .942.
The Stars also play a good defensive structure, allowing just 28.8 Shots Against per game, and have an 81.5% Penalty Kill. They made the blue line even stronger by picking up Chris Tanev at the trade deadline, and while he was knocked out of last Saturday’s game in Seattle following an elbow by Adam Larsson, he was the first player on the ice for practice in Dallas on Tuesday and is expected to be in the lineup against the Oilers.
The Stars can score, too. At 3.64 goals per game, they sit third in the league. Their Power Play clicks at 24% and has gone 4-for-11 in the last three games.
That all adds up to gaudy puck-possession numbers. At 5-on-5 over the last 10 games, Dallas is controlling 57.22% of Expected Goals, the third-best rate in the NHL.
Now that Tanev has the all-clear, the Stars are also healthy.
Oilers vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
As a rule, looking for value is a priority when assessing betting lines. Hockey is a sport with a good amount of innate randomness, so you're going to be wrong sometimes even when your analysis is right. Higher payouts can help compensate for those bumps in the road.
But for this game, the best bet is the safe bet. Dallas is playing superb hockey and continues to raise the bar ahead of the playoffs. While poor puck luck played a big part in Edmonton's loss to St. Louis on Monday, the Stars will be bringing a level of competition that's higher than the Blues.
At -120 on the moneyline as of Tuesday evening, BetMGM is giving Dallas implied odds of winning of 54.55%. That's fair — and maybe a little low for a team that's riding a seven-game winning streak.
The game will likely be close enough that there's risk in choosing a regulation win. Those 4-3 outcomes earlier this year hover precariously close to the over/under of 6.5.
Take the chalk up to -130 on the Stars moneyline.
Pick: Stars Moneyline -120 (BetMGM | Play to -130)
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