NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Rangers vs Blues (Thursday, January 11)
Via Rich Graessle/Getty Images. Pictured: Artemi Panarin #10 of the New York Rangers skates during warm up prior to the game against the Carolina Hurricanes at Madison Square Garden on January 2, 2024 in New York, New York.
Rangers vs. Blues Odds
| Rangers Odds | -150 |
| Blues Odds | +125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -102 / -120 |
We are entering a pivotal stretch of the NHL season. It's easy to lose sight of the ultimate goal post-holiday hiatus and pre-All-Star break, but it's a time when teams can turn the tides of their seasons. Hell, it was just a few years ago that the St. Louis Blues started a 30-9-5 in January en route to their first ever Stanley Cup.
The Blues won't need to replicate that record to make the playoffs this season, but they do have some ground to make up in the Western Conference standings. St. Louis enters Thursday's matchup against the New York Rangers on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
That's not a position the Rangers can lament. The Broadway Blueshirts remain the class of the Metropolitan Division, easily staking themselves to the division lead at the halfway point. Moreover, they've leveled up their performances lately, suggesting the Rangers are the right side come puck drop.
You wouldn't know it from their 3-3-1 record, but the last two weeks have been the finest stretch of hockey of the Rangers' season. New York has outplayed its opponents in seven straight games, accumulating a 54.0% Expected Goals For rating. That outpaces their season average of 49.9% by a substantial margin, while also setting a new high mark for consecutive games outplaying their opponents.
As usual, the Rangers offense is proliferating. The Metropolitan Division leaders have hit double-digit high-danger opportunities in five of seven, out-chancing their opponents by a 70-61 margin. Similarly, scoring chances are flowing abundantly. New York has exceeded 24 scoring opportunities in all but two of those seven games, above its season average of 22.4.
The Rangers' defensive metrics have improved alongside offensive production as they have limited opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances and 24 or fewer scoring chances in five of seven, for respective averages of 8.7 and 22.6.
However, there's an inverse relationship with the team's save percentage. Despite fewer chances against, Rangers goalies have combined for a sub-optimal 89.0% save percentage over the seven-game sample. Rangers netminders have presumably reached the bottom of the well, and it's time for the bucket to start coming up with water.
This has been the Rangers' most dominant stretch of the season, and their record should start reflecting that.
It's probably not evident from their position in the standings, but the St. Louis Blues are not a gifted analytics team. Really, they never have been. The Blues' success is predicated on an unsustainable brand of hockey, making it hard to back them on any given night. The bottom has fallen out of their already disappointing metrics more recently, implying that more losses will follow.
So far this season, St. Louis has compiled the fourth-worst Expected Goals For rating in the NHL. With 39 games under their belts, the Blues are operating at a 45.6% clip. That puts them just ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks and immediately below the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Blues have been elevated by a few key players, but as you can tell from the company they keep, they aren't as good as their record implies.
Somehow, the Blues have lowered that standard over their recent sample. St. Louis has been outplayed in four of its past six, with a 43.4% Expected Goals For rating. As expected, the Blues are getting outplayed on both ends of the ice, giving up 9.7 high-danger chances per game while attempting a measly 6.7.
You wouldn't expect a team like that to have any wins over a stretch like that, but the Blues are sitting pretty with a respectable 3-3-0 record.
Rangers vs. Blues
Betting Pick & Prediction
Optically, these teams are polar opposites. The Rangers have excelled over their recent sample but have suffered heartbreaking defeats as a result of ineffective goaltending. Conversely, the Blues have more wins than we would expect following a disastrous stretch where they have consistently been outplayed.
The betting action on this one is somewhat confusing. The Blues have taken a lot of early money, moving them from +140 to as low as +130 in some markets. If that downward trend continues, it could be worth holding off on backing the Rangers until closer to puck drop.
Irrespective of line movement, though, we're backing the Rangers at -180 or better.
Pick: Rangers -156 (Play to -180)
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