NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Rangers vs Bruins (Thursday, March 21)
Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Grzelcyk and David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins.
Rangers vs. Bruins Odds
| Rangers Odds | +130 |
| Bruins Odds | -155 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -135/ +115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Rangers vs. Boston Bruins on Thursday, March 21 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Division leaders New York and Boston will face off Thursday night in an important clash at TD Garden.
The Rangers will look to respond tonight against another true cup contender after a poor performance Monday against the Jets. They will start backup Jonathan Quick and remain without top-four defenders Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren.
The Bruins have won three straight and are 7-2-1 over their last 10 games. They sit three points up on the Panthers for the division title but have played two more games.
Find my Rangers vs. Bruins preview and prediction below.
Every year at this time, there's a debate about whether or not the Rangers are truly a cup contender. Their control of the overall play at five-on-five has been modest yet again, but they have proven to have avenues to win games while owning fewer overall chances.
This year's Rangers look like a side that could win the cup, but that is fairly priced in the second tier of the East just behind the Hurricanes and Panthers. They have put up a 5-3-1 record in March, and a further analysis of those games makes me believe more firmly in their potential.
The Rangers have played to an xGF% of just 44.21 in nine matchups. They were clearly the lesser team versus the Panthers on March 4th, and they were outclassed by another of the league's elites in Monday's matchup against the Jets.
Their 1-0 win in Raleigh last Tuesday was a strong testament to the idea that they can hang with the top dogs. They did not own more of the possession overall, but they prevented the kind of shots that Igor Shesterkin would actually let in. It would be fair to say they actually matched Carolina in terms of the true grade-A chances.
I loved the idea of trading for a forward from Columbus for deadline buyers, and so far Jack Roslovic is proving that notion correct, as he has looked strong with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Roslovic and Alex Wennberg do legitimately raise the Rangers' floor at even strength in their new roles.
With Trouba and Lindgren injured, the Rangers will likely skate with the following defensive pairings:
- Erik Gustafsson – Adam Fox
- K'Andre Miller – Braden Schneider
- Zac Jones – Chad Ruhwedel
While Trouba and Lindgren are big names who always play in the top four, I do not believe the Rangers need to be downgraded significantly in their absences. Gustafsson has been excellent this year and should fill in somewhat effectively on the top pair. Schneider has also offered quality play, and he and Miller should still make a solid second pairing. Jones is a strong puck-mover and has shown well in a small sample.
The more important roster note ahead of this game is that the Rangers will be starting backup goaltender Jonathan Quick. Quick has played to a +13.7 GSAx and .916 Save % across 23 games played.
The Bruins will look to continue making a case that they are still a true cup contender in this matchup. They have played to a 7-2-1 record over the last 10 and own an xGF% of 54.16 in that span.
Aside from depth additions in Patrick Maroon and Andrew Peeke, the Bruins ultimately decided to stand pat at the deadline.
The main concern for the Bruins on paper this season has always been that Charlie Coyle, Morgan Geekie and Pavel Zacha is not a Stanley Cup contending corps at the critical center-ice position. All three have also played quite well though, and Casey Mittelstadt was the only rental on the market who would likely have offered much of an upgrade in terms of replacement value.
Whether or not that will prove to be a problem remains to be seen. It's obvious the Bruins do not hold a guy like Aleksander Barkov or Auston Matthews. Still, they have an excellent blue line and defend at an elite level as a team, with two elite goaltenders.
Those strengths will afford them a solid chance against any team come the postseason. However, they will always be prone to playing coin-flip type hockey in the postseason versus other elite teams, as we saw last year against the Panthers.
Jeremy Swayman has been confirmed as the Bruins' starter in this matchup. He has played to a +13.8 GSAx and .917 Save % this season.
Rangers vs. Bruins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Quick offers a downgrade compared to Shesterkin, but he has still been excellent this season. Most lines have moved 15 cents following Quick's confirmation, which is plenty in my opinion. Because these teams offer relatively comparable profiles right now, this should produce a tightly contested matchup featuring close score-lines.
The Bruins are the better side at even strength, but the Rangers are still competent enough to hang around at five-on-five. Whether the analytics suggest the Rangers process is actually decent or not, they are still well above water in terms of Even Strength Goal Differential this season 69 games in.
The Bruins have played in a lot of games heading past regulation since the All-Star break, and this sets up as a favorable spot to bet on that trend. The Rangers are quite capable of keeping this game close, but I have a hard time seeing them winning by a margin.
This game is priced at +340 to go to overtime on FanDuel, and I see value with anything better than +325.
Pick: Regulation Tie +340 (FanDuel | Play to +325)
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