NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs Maple Leafs (Saturday, April 13)
(Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Auston Matthews.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Red Wings Odds | +150 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -180 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -120o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday, April 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
An Original Six matchup in hockey's mecca could redefine the Eastern Conference playoff race.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have an outside shot of moving up the Atlantic Division standings. Toronto sits six points back of the Boston Bruins for the division lead and five points back of the Florida Panthers, with a game in hand, for the second seed. They will need some help, but home-ice advantage throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs isn't out of the question.
There might be a little more desperation in the Red Wings' case, though. Heading into Saturday's action, the Wings sit outside the playoff picture looking in. Detroit has relinquished a playoff berth, falling one point shy of the Pittsburgh Penguins for the last wild-card spot. As a result, they will also need a little help if they hope to have a shot at this year's Stanley Cup.
Despite the urgency from both squads, one team has a decided advantage in this Atlantic Division clash. Let's take a look at which side to back in our Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs preview and pick.
Detroit's playoff aspirations didn't die with Thursday night's loss to the Penguins, but they certainly took a big hit. Now, the Red Wings will need to capitalize on Saturday's opportunity against one of the top teams in the league, and they don't have the supporting metrics to keep things close.
Analytically, the Wings are actually one of the bottom-feeding teams in the league. Their 45.6% expected goals-for rating drops them to fourth worst in the NHL, sandwiched between the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks. Somehow, they've found a way to lower the bar of late.
Over the last two weeks, Detroit has compiled a 45.3% expected goals-for rating, getting outplayed in four of its six outings. Much like their regular season play, the Wings have out-performed their expected benchmark, implying further correction is on the horizon. Their 54.5% actual goals-for rating is nearly 10 points higher than expected, while an inflated PDO of 1.016 also suggests regression is inevitable.
The Red Wings' chances of making the playoffs will likely take another significant blow following Saturday's intra-divisional battle.
As is typically the case, the Maple Leafs are still delivering some of the best analytics in the league. They remain on the cusp of the top 10 with their 51.5% expected goals-for rating, dialing up the intensity over the latter part of the campaign. That upward trajectory should continue with Saturday's home test against the Red Wings.
Their record doesn't reflect it, but the Leafs have been unstoppable over their recent sample. Toronto has outplayed five of its past six opponents, tilting the ice further in its direction with each passing contest. Cumulatively, they've posted a 58% expected goals-for rating, but they've improved that benchmark above 65% in each of their last two.
Not surprisingly, Toronto's success is premised on elite offensive production. They rank top five in scoring and high-danger chances, amplifying production over their more recent sample. Using the same six-game stretch, the Leafs have exceeded 10 high-danger chances in all but one outing. More importantly, they've posted a 57.9% high-danger chances rating over that sample.
That unrelenting analytics success has yet to translate to improved outcomes, but the Leafs are positioned for success before the end of the season.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Undoubtedly, the Maple Leafs are the superior squad in this Saturday night tilt. However, their supremacy isn't accurately reflected in the betting market. Toronto opened as -180 favorites and continues to hover around that price. That leaves a substantive edge in backing the home side, a play we would make up to -225.
Moreover, this is Auston Matthews' last chance to reach the 70-goal plateau on home ice, and we expect him to reward the Maple Leaf faithful. We're backing Matthews to record two or more goals at +470 for good measure.
Pick: Maple Leafs (-178 via FanDuel) | Auston Matthews to score 2+ goals (+470 via FanDuel)
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