NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs. Oilers

Red Wings vs. Oilers Odds

The Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings renew acquaintances on Wednesday night for the second time in just over a week.

Edmonton got the better of the exchange last time out and could have an even more significant advantage with home ice on their side. Nevertheless, a few metrics indicate this non-conference matchup could stay beneath the total.

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Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings' typically conservative offense has exploded over the past couple of games, recording 11 goals in getting past the Vancouver Canucks in consecutive games. However, that output has been the exception to the rule, and the Wings don't have metrics supporting sustained scoring.

Detroit has been one of the least imposing offensive teams in the league this year, and its past few games are no exception. Detroit has mustered just 13 high-danger and 34 scoring chances across those two outings.

Moreover, the Red Wings' limited production isn't restricted to their last couple of games. They have been held to seven or fewer quality opportunities in five of their past seven, averaging just 6.6 chances per game. As such, their recent success is unsubstantiated, and regression is expected.

Although they've struggled to produce meaningful offense, the Wings have been defensively responsible. The Original Six franchise has limited its opponents to nine or fewer quality chances in five of its last nine and 24 or fewer scoring opportunities in all but two of those matchups.

That defensive structure will be needed to contain Connor McDavid and company.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers have to contend with the Red Wings' solid defensive structure, but the playoff hopefuls have to get out of their own way. Edmonton has seen a decline in its production metrics, which could regress further after an extended hot streak.

The Oilers saw a big jump in their underlying metrics near the start of January. From January 9 until the All-Star break, Edmonton attempted 10 or more quality chances in all but one of their nine contests. Altogether, they averaged 14.0 high-danger chances per game, above their season-long average of 10.3.

The Oilers have cooled off since the pause, attempting nine or fewer quality chances in three of four, falling to 8.3 per game. Still, across the entire 13-game sample, the Oilers are above their normal ranges, implying further correction is anticipated.

Thankfully, Edmonton can lean into its defense to offset its anticipated offensive shortcomings. The Oilers' structure has been low-key superb over their past few games, limiting six of their last seven opponents to nine or fewer high-danger opportunities.

Considering the Red Wings' apprehensive offense, that should hold steady for at least one more game.

Red Wings vs. Oilers Pick

The surge in the Red Wings' output is contraindicated in their analytics. Further, the Oilers' offense gets most of the credit for its success, but we can't overlook their defensive contributions. Edmonton allows the eighth-fewest high-danger chances in the NHL and have been even better over its recent sample.

The market may be overreacting to the total in this one, with the over 6.5 bought up to -132 at FanDuel. Given the underlying metrics, we're making a calculated play on the under at +108 but would play anything at plus money.

Pick: Under 6.5 (+100 or Better)

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