NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs Senators (Thursday, November 16)
Pictured: James Reimer. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
Red Wings vs. Senators Odds
On Thursday afternoon the NHL, as part of its Global Series, heads to Sweden, where the Ottawa Senators will take on the Detroit Red Wings.
These clubs squared off earlier this season with Detroit claiming a 5-2 victory.
Will we see another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up when the teams hit the ice at Avicii Arena in Stockholm at a special time of 2 p.m. ET?
Let's preview the NHL odds and make a prediction for Red Wings vs. Senators.
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Detroit's offense has been explosive and ranks fourth in the league in goals scored per game.
However, its underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming as the Wings rank 25th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
Meanwhile, the blue line should continue to do a solid job of suppressing high-danger scoring chances. At 5-on-5, Detroit ranks in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Backing up this blue line is goaltender James Reimer, who is expected to start Thursday. Reimer has put together a dominant start to the campaign with a .933 SV% and a 1.80 GAA through five starts.
He's also saved .291 goals above expected per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. This success could continue against Ottawa, a team Reimer has dominated throughout his career.
Over 28 career starts against the Senators, Reimer is 17-6-3 with a .926 SV% and a 2.51 GAA.
Across the ice, goaltender Joonas Korpisalo is expected to get the nod for the Senators.
Through 10 appearances in the crease this season, Korpisalo is 4-4 with a .907 SV% and a 3.10 GAA.
Like Reimer, Korpisalo's metrics are also strong as he's saved .263 goals above expected per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Additionally, the Senators are primed for regression.
Despite ranking third in the league in goals scored per game, Ottawa ranks 29th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. Part of this disparity is the fact that the Senators rank 12th in power play percentage, but that could be nullified by a Detroit penalty kill that ranks in the top half of the league.
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Red Wings vs. Senators
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both offenses are due for major regression, which bodes well for taking Under 6.5 at plus money.
That regression could come to fruition in a matchup between Reimer and Korpisalo, two goaltenders who have been seeing the puck well to begin the campaign.
Need more convincing? There have been five or fewer goals scored in four of Reimer's five starts.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+108) | Play to -110
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