NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Sabres vs Kraken (Monday, March 18)
Sabres vs. Kraken Odds
| Sabres Odds | -105 |
| Kraken Odds | -115 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Buffalo Sabres vs. Seattle Kraken on Monday, March 18 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Buffalo will look to respond from a critical loss versus Detroit, in what was its most important game of the season. With 14 games to go, the Sabres aren't dead just yet. But it would take something close to an 11-3-0 run for them sneak in at this point.
After a four-game losing streak the Kraken are 11 points back of the Knights for the final Wild Card spot.
These sides were both among the leagues best offenses last season, but have taken significant steps backwards in terms of offensive production, which will likely cause respective playoff misses.
Buffalo had an opportunity to close within one point of a playoff berth with a win in Detroit, but offered a disappointing performance against a Wings side which has been dreadful as of late.
Per NaturalStatTrick, the Sabres generated just nine high-danger chances over the entirety of the game, combining for 1.99 xGF. Considering how awful the Red Wings defensive play has been, that can certainly be taken as a highly negative comment about the current state of Buffalo's offense.
Over the last 15 games the Sabres have generated only 2.80 xGF/60, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. While the Sabres offensive upside is currently quite capped, they have defended at an elite level recently. Over the last 15 games they have allowed only 2.79 xGA/60, so analytically speaking they are a hair better than breakeven.
Bo Byram has been a great fit on the top pair, and has helped drive offense from the back end. Still, Casey Mittelstadt leaves a meaningful hole on the second line. Mittelstadt's 50 points would rank second on the team.
Ukko Pekka-Luukkonen has been the driving force behind the Sabres late push for a Wild Card spot. My assumption is he gets the front end of this back-to-back spot, but keep your eyes out for confirmation towards that, as saving him for Vancouver tomorrow would also not be shocking.
Luukkonen has played to a +11.1 GSAx and .915 save percentage across 43 appearances this season.
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The Kraken have not been able to respond from their shocking collapse last Tuesday versus the Knights, in what was their most important game of the season. They have scored just two goals combined in the outings that followed versus the Capitals and Predators, and are now +1700 to make the playoffs.
The Kraken's inability to create offense is going to be the reason for a disappointing playoff absence. They have scored just 2.68 goals per game, which ranks 28th league wide. Over the last month of play, the Kraken have created only 2.64 xGF/60, which is the second-lowest clip in the league.
It's still hard for me to accept that their offense is so far below what it was last season, but that take simply seems to be more and more incorrect.
It would be fair to say Vince Dunn has been the Kraken's best skater this season. Therefore it should be surprise that the Kraken's form his dropped off since his injury on March 4 in Calgary, though there is lots of causation beyond that. Dunn is probable to return to the lineup for this matchup.
Joey Daccord is expected to start this matchup. He has played to a +8.0 GSAx and .919 save % in 42 appearances this season.
Sabres vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Sabres continue to play some of the most low event hockey in the league. They do not hold meaningful offensive depth, and are generating chances at a below average rate currently as a result. Luukkonen has shined behind their much improved defensive play though, and we should see that narrative continue here.
The Kraken are one of the league's better defensive teams themselves, and have also received better than average goaltending. They might not be as entirely awful offensively as we have seen so far, but this does not setup as a good spot for their offense to figure it out.
Even with a low total of 5.5, I see value backing the under at -110 or better in this matchup.
Pick: Under 5.5, If Luukkonen Starts (-105 | Play to -110)
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