NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs Avalanche (Sunday, April 7)
Via Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche
Stars vs. Avalanche Odds
| Stars Odds | +105 |
| Avalanche Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 6 -125o / +105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche on Sunday, April 7 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After the Stars suffered a surprising 3-2 loss in Chicago on Saturday, Sunday's matchup suddenly is very important. With a regulation win, the Avalanche would pull within one point of the Stars for the Central Division lead with four games remaining for each team.
Find my Stars vs Avalanche pick and NHL betting preview below.
It's entirely possible that the Stars' unlikely loss yesterday in Chicago is the determining factor in the Central Division race, or even potentially the Presidents Trophy race, depending on the result of this game.
The Stars were visibly dominant, outshooting the Blackhawks 44-17 and owning triple the time on attack. The High Danger Chances For and Against were 18-4, but the Hawks managed to finish two of their few decent looks while the Stars could not finish anything. Nights like that happen to every team in the league, and that's a big part of why the NHL Playoffs are so unpredictable every season.
It's also an important note from a handicapping perspective to consider that regardless of how a game goes, no result is ever a lock.
It's fun to start thinking about how these two sides match up ahead of a potential playoff series. The Stars have the best depth in the league offensively, with three offensive units that can burn the opposition on any given night. They are more well situated to handle an injury or two up front than most other contenders, which is a bonus heading into the postseason where injury luck is a key factor.
The Stars' top line of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski is not quite a one-for-one match for what the Avalanche have, but it is still a truly dominant top line when true to form. Hintz was in the running for Conn Smythe last postseason and should be a skater to monitor when those markets come out this postseason.
Since the beginning of March, the Stars rank first in the league with a 62.81% Expected Goal Share. They have played to a record of 12-3-0 in that span, generating 4.00 goals for per game and allowing only 2.33 against.
The Stars' recent play has been eye-popping for a number of reasons, but the most important note ahead of the playoffs is that star netminder Jake Oettinger has found his form recently. Oettinger has played to a .918 Save Percentage and +3.32 GSAx over his last nine outings. He has been confirmed as tonight's starter after resting yesterday.
Tyler Seguin missed yesterday's contest with injury, but it seems likely he will return tonight as the Stars sent Mavrik Bourque back down to the AHL.
Traveling into altitude to face the high-flying Avalanche has been a nightmare for most opponents this season, as Colorado owns the league's most notable home ice advantage at 29-7-1.
It's also clear that the Avs are currently a significantly better team now than they were prior to the trade deadline. For many parts of this season, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Devon Toews and Mikko Rantanen were doing the vast majority of the heavy lifting for Colorado and were working to cover holes for the rest of the roster.
That made the Avalanche a team that was highly logical to receive a meaningful boost at the trade deadline, as players on the market actually offered a significant upgrade to some of their everyday players.
Casey Mittelstadt has effectively filled the role of second-line center, which was the Avs' most blatant hole before the deadline. Mittelstadt's addition cost a meaningful piece in Bowen Byram, but that loss was more than mitigated with the addition of Sean Walker, who has been the better of the two defenders this season.
The Avalanche own a 54.91% Expected Goal Share since the deadline. They are 10-3-1 and are own a +1.58 per game Goal Differential in that span.
Alexandar Georgiev has been confirmed as the Avs' starter in this matchup. He has played to a +5.8 GSAx and .900 Save Percentage across 58 appearances this season.
Stars vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
This potential second-round preview should make for one of the best matchups remaining on the regular season schedule. Both teams aren't offering much in the way of clear flaws, and both like to push the pace to help generate offense.
Teams have had a really tough time traveling to altitude this season. The Avalanche's play has really gone to another level, and suddenly they look like a side that isn't entirely reliant on superstars. They still do not hold the overall depth of the Stars up front, but they do have superior top talents.
If these teams do end up meeting in the playoffs, I'm still not sure which I would pick to win the series. With this game taking place in Colorado and the Stars on the second night of back-to-back games, I do see value betting the Avalanche at anything better than -130 on the moneyline.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline -122 (FanDuel | Play to -130)
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