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Friday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks Betting Preview

Friday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks Betting Preview article feature image
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Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Seguin #91 of the Dallas Stars

  • The Chicago Blackhawks host the Dallas Stars in this Friday night showdown.
  • The Stars have been looking like a playoff team while Chicago has struggled lately.
  • Handicapper Nicholas Martin was so bullish on this bet, he locked it in before the Blackhawks’ Thursday game and you can find out why below.

Stars vs. Blackhawks Odds

Stars Odds -140
Blackhawks Odds +120
Over/Under 5.5
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

The Dallas Stars will head in to Chicago looking to keep their surge toward the postseason moving in the right direction, fresh off a massive regulation win in Colorado.

They will be catching the middling Blackhawks in a good spot, with Chicago taking on the Blue Jackets Thursday. Can the Stars capture two points and pull the club into the final wild-card spot out of the West?

Dallas Stars Shooting Ahead

After an all-over-the-place start to the season, the Stars are finding more consistency with regards to their results — posting a mark of 8-3-0 over their last 11 games. This upward trend was punctuated last time out in handing the Avalanche their first regulation loss in 2022.

A 53.99 xGF% over their last 11 games should ensure a strong record can continue. And led by a quietly dominant fifth-ranked powerplay, the Stars have taken their offensive play to a level beyond what most would expect of late.

Dallas’ spectacular top trio of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski has absolutely torched the league for an entire season. They have combined for 139 points in 131 man games so far this year, each sitting with 21 goals scored.

Tyler Seguin has come alive with regards to offensive production of late, with eight points in his last six contests. He would offer a massive boost to the Stars’ clear need for depth scoring should he continue to find form closer to what we’ve seen across much of his career.

With Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg each leading one pairing and supported by strong defenders in Essa Lindell and Ryan Suter, the Stars feature a well-above-average top four, and are better off in that regard than much of the league.

The result of this makeup has been West’s eighth-best winning percentage so far, and I believe we will see them continue to push and likely find a playoff berth this season.

It’s hard to project who will draw the start here, but I would lean toward Jake Oettinger after an unreal start against Colorado Tuesday — he put up 46 saves on 47 attempts.

For those who have watched Oettinger closely the last two years it’s been clear he has been the Stars’ best goaltending option, plus he holds a ton of upside moving forward.

Throughout 21 games Oettinger holds a +2.9 goals saved above expected rating with a .916 save percentage, building on an excellent start to his young career.

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Chicago Blackhawks Far From Soaring

Heading into Thursday’s contest against Columbus, the Hawks put together just a lowly 3-6-1 mark over their last 10. And that’s with a poor expected goals percentage of 45.14, which suggests the slump should continue.

Derek King has them playing some structured hockey in a relatively dull and defensive system, but it’s hard to see much upside moving forward from this point with the group simply holding below-league-average amounts of scoring talent this season.

Chicago hold the NHL’s 30th-worst goals for per game rate, helping to contribute to the league’s fourth-worst goal differential altogether this season.

The Hawks also actually hold a worse winning percentage at home this season than on the road, so they likely hold little to no edge playing on home ice here.

Marc-Andre Fleury is set to rest Thursday against Columbus, and holds a -8.6 goals saved above expected rating with a .910 save percentage, but has stabilized to an extent after a dreadful start to the season for both him and the Hawks.

Stars-Blackhawks Pick

When I had originally looked toward this game, I already envisioned it was a spot where I would like to back the Stars — they are up against a Chicago team with a limited offensive attack and some favorable matchups, including having no real option to play Dallas’ ridiculously potent top line effectively on the back end.

Seeing the price opened at -140 made this take even easier, as to me that price is just simply way too low considering the disparity between these team’s results, expected results moving forward, and the fact that the Hawks are in a back-to-back situation.

I’m pretty confident we will be seeing a line well worse than -140 by puck-drop (check real-time NHL odds here), and I would certainly jump at the chance to take the line before it moves.

For that reason I wrote this piece prior to Thursday’s contest against Columbus, as I really don’t see my pick changing — regardless of Chicago putting together a sharp looking effort or not at this point in the season. This will hopefully offer more people a chance to see a price I imagine will worsen moving forward.

The Stars are likely to remain at full strength here, and this sets up as a spot I love for a Dallas team that really can’t afford let-down games to come in and grab two points from some very manageable competition in the Blackhawks.

Pick: Dallas Stars ML | Bet to: -180

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