NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs Kraken (Saturday, March 30)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Matty Beniers #10 of the Seattle Kraken
Stars vs. Kraken Odds
| Stars Odds | -180 |
| Kraken Odds | +150 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105o / -115u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Seattle Kraken on Saturday, March 30 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Like the mythical creature they are named after, the Seattle Kraken's playoff hopes have vanished. The NHL's newest franchise is barely keeping its head above water lately, sitting just one game above .500. But that hasn't stopped them from embracing the role of spoiler over the latter part of the regular season. That mentality applies to Saturday's tilt versus the Dallas Stars.
Dallas is in the driver's seat in the Central Division. Up three points on the Colorado Avalanche and seven on the Winnipeg Jets, the Stars are just a few wins away from securing their first division banner since 2015-16. But at the end of a four-game road trip, and with a date against the Edmonton Oilers on the horizon, Saturday could be a bit of a flat spot for the division-leading Stars.
The betting line has shifted in favor of the Stars since opening, a position that is unjustified based on our analysis. We're taking a contrarian view of this Western Conference battle, backing the home underdog Kraken.
Let's dive into our Stars vs Kraken preview and pick.
Dallas has used a string of above-average performances to lift its position in the season-long analytics. The Stars have outplayed their opponents in five straight contests and eight of their past nine to move into fourth overall in expected goals-for rating. But as sustainable as their play is looking, Dallas has reached a tipping point in their output which will result in decreased scoring. More succinctly, the Stars' metrics are overheating.
Scoring has become synonymous with the Stars over their recent hot streak. Dallas has totaled three or more goals at 5-on-5 in all but one of its last six. Over that stretch, they're scoring on 10.6% of their shots at 5-on-5 and 13.3% across all strengths. Although mighty, those efforts put them well ahead of their respective season-long averages of 9.6% and 11.6%. The Stars were held off the board at 5-on-5 against the Vancouver Canucks last time out, and that could be a sign of things to come over their next few games.
The other factor worth considering is Dallas' current schedule. Saturday's contest will be the Stars fourth straight road game played in seven days. That has put them in an unusual position of diminished defensive productivity. Two of the last three teams they've played have reached double-digit high-danger chances, a benchmark that hadn't been reached since the end of February.
The Stars are due for a cooling-off period, and the Kraken could have the antidote for their scorching offense.
That was a hell of a downward spiral, but the Kraken have seemingly pumped the brakes before the worst of the carnage. Seattle had dropped eight straight decisions before reversing course and stealing both games of a back-to-back against the Anaheim Ducks. Granted, the Ducks aren't the most imposing team in the NHL, but Seattle has had their metrics working in their favor for most of the past week.
Seattle has turned the table analytically. The Kraken have outplayed three of their past four opponents, yielding a 62.6% expected goals-for rating. Improved defensive efforts have been the foundation of those successes, with Seattle limiting all four of those opponents to eight or fewer high-danger and 21 or fewer scoring chances. More impressively, those averages have dipped to 5.0 and 16.8 over the four-game sample.
Predictably, those stout performances correlate with decreased scoring. Kraken goalies have held three of four opponents to zero goals at 5-on-5, with just the Montreal Canadiens totaling four tallies. As a result, Seattle's 5-on-5 save percentage has improved to 92.8% over that stretch.
Despite the solid play the Kraken have secured just two wins since March 5. Sustained efforts should help Seattle continue to rack up wins, fulfilling its destiny as playoff spoilers.
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Stars vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Stars are starting to dim, and that hurts their chances against the Kraken. For the first time since February 20, Dallas was held off the scoresheet at 5-on-5, which could foreshadow what to expect from them over the coming sample.
Moreover, Seattle possesses the defensive integrity to hamper the Stars' chances.
As a result, we're planting our flag in the Kraken moneyline on Saturday night, backing them as moderate home underdogs. The best available price is +145, but that could continue to climb ahead of puck drop. Irrespective of direction, we're betting the hosts at +130 or better.
Pick: Kraken ML (+145 via bet365)
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