NHL Odds, Prediction, Pick: Stars vs Lightning Preview (Monday, December 4)
Pictured: Jason Robertson. (Photo by Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images)
Stars vs. Lightning Odds
| Stars Odds | -110 |
| Lightning Odds | -110 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -101 / -119 |
Here's everything you need to know about Stars vs. Lightning on Monday, Dec. 4 — our expert prediction and NHL betting pick for today.
Following an 8-1 dismantling at American Airlines Arena on Saturday, the Tampa Bay Lightning are getting a do-over.
After hitting the ice for a previously unscheduled practice on Sunday, the Lightning will welcome the Dallas Stars to Tampa on Monday night as part of a rare, cross-conference home-and-home set.
The Lightning have star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy back in action after his preseason back surgery, but are mired in a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Stars are soaring. They're kicking off a three-game road trip after picking up five of a possible six points in their past three games.
That being said, here's my prediction for Stars vs. Lightning.
After reaching the Western Conference Final last season, the Stars have the tools to make another meaningful run. They're strong in all areas of the game, ranking in the top 10 on offense, defense and special teams. Their 5-on-5 puck possession is top five with an expected goals share of 54.63%. The goaltending is also sharp as Jake Oettinger has a .920 save percentage and backup Scott Wedgewood isn't far behind at .911%.
Oettinger got the win Saturday and will likely get the nod again Monday.
The Stars are healthy and as they come off their second eight-goal beatdown of the season, their top players are finding the net. On Saturday, Joe Pavelski led the way with three points. Jason Robertson chipped in his seventh and eighth goals of the year and was one of seven players to have a two-point outing.
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The Lightning did an admirable job of weathering the storm while waiting for Vasilevskiy to recover from his back surgery, amassing a 9-6-5 record. And Vasilevskiy's first game back was a triumph, an 8-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes. But since then, Tampa Bay has lost four straight.
In just four games, Vasilevskiy has already slipped to -3.3 goals saved above expected. He's also carrying an .859 save percentage.
Just as worrisome: the Lighting offense has hit a dry spell, scoring just five goals in five games. Nikita Kucherov has been a model of consistency and is riding a nine-game point streak while leading the league scoring race with 40 points. However, his teammates' sticks have gone ice cold. Brayden Point remains in the league's top 10 at 30 points, for example, but has just one assist during the four-game losing streak.
At 5-on-5, the Lightning's expected goals share is right in the middle of the pack, at 49.88%. But their power play has remained effective — second-best in the league and responsible for two of the three goals scored during the past two games.
Stars vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
With a 6-3-3 record on home ice, the Lightning fare well at Amalie Arena. However, the Stars have been excellent on the road, with an 8-1-2 record.
Given that, it's a little surprising to see Tampa Bay open as a slight favorite on the moneyline.
The Lightning aren't as bad as they've been over the past few games and will get back on track before long, but it won't be against the Stars on Monday. Don't expect another slaughter, but there's value in backing the road 'dogs.
Pick: Stars Moneyline | Play to -115
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