Wednesday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers Betting Preview

Stars vs. Oilers Odds

After kicking off their three-game Canadian road trip with a 6-2 loss in Vancouver on Monday, the Dallas Stars will be looking to get back on track and further solidify their playoff prospects when they visit the surging Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday night.

With their goaltending woes now seemingly behind them, the Oilers are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and look like they've all-but locked up second place in the Pacific Division.

Here's the latest on both teams, and your best bet for the game.

Stars Hope To Have Found Consistency

It hasn't been easy to get a read on the Stars this season — a team that's transitioning to its next wave of top players like Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger while veterans like Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Ryan Suter still play big roles.

The end result has been middle-of-the-pack numbers in nearly every statistical category. But those averages have been smoothed out after some great offensive spurts and some scoring outages, along with highs and lows on the defensive side of the puck. Even the Stars' goaltenders are currently hovering right around the league average in expected goals.

In other words: Dallas makes it tough for bettors to find a clear position to back.

Over their last 10 games, the Stars have kept pace in the Western Conference playoff race, with a 5-3-2 record. There has been an uptick in their expected goals rate at 5-on-5 during that time, to a seventh-ranked 54.42%.

And even after giving up six even-strength goals in Vancouver on Monday, Dallas remains tied for third in expected goals against per 60, at just 2.13. And the Stars' penalty killing has also been excellent, giving up just two goals over the last 12 games for a 90.9% success rate.

The offensive side of their game has been decidedly more average. They're ranked 26th with an average of 2.6 goals scored per game over their 10 games in the month of April, 16th with 2.54 expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5, and just 18.9% effective on the power play.

Edmonton Thriving With Improved Goaltending

Comparatively speaking, the Oilers have been the picture of consistency. They're 9-1-1 in their last 11 games, averaging 3.73 goals scored, and have allowed more than two goals in just three of those games.

Much of their recent defensive success has originated between the pipes. Mike Smith is 6-1-0 with a .943 save percentage over that 11-game stretch, and has climbed to 2.6 goals saved above expected for the year.

Edmonton's expected goals against per 60 over its last 10 games is a so-so 2.56, but the team's actual goals against per game ranks third, at 2.55. A penalty kill rate of 93.8% since March 24 also helps.

After grappling with injury issues earlier in the year, the Oilers are now back to full health. They'll also have a schedule advantage on Wednesday — on a three-game homestand, with three full days of rest and practice since shutting out Vegas last Saturday afternoon.

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Stars vs. Oilers Pick

Wednesday will mark the Stars' first game at Rogers Place since they watched the Tampa Bay Lightning hoist the Stanley Cup there after losing the 2020 final in six games. In Dallas earlier this season, Oettinger logged a pair of wins as the Stars defeated the Oilers 4-1 back in November, then came from behind for a 5-3 win on March 22.

Given the solid recent defensive data for both teams, it seems like Wednesday's game should be more subdued. But with these teams, you never know when another round of fire-wagon hockey might break out.

That makes the over/under a very tough call.

So, based on strength of schedule, it makes sense to stick with the home side. A regulation win for Edmonton offers good value at even money.

Pick: Oilers in regulation (+100); play down to -115