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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Saturday, October 31, Nick Griffith has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Islanders Moneyline (+110, FanDuel)
- Sharks Moneyline (+114, FanDuel)
- Artemi Panarin 3+ Shots on Goal (-130, FanDuel)
- Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3.5 (-130, FanDuel)
- Avalanche -1.5 (61¢, Polymarket)
Oilers vs Islanders Pick
The Oilers placed Devon Levi on injured reserve last Friday, and the first two games without him were rough, with seven goals allowed to Toronto and four more to Detroit. Levi skated at practice yesterday, but he isn’t expected back until at least next week.
That leaves Tristan Jarry in net again. He’s coming off a 4-0 shutout on Wednesday, but it came against a Calgary team that has scored just eight goals in five road games.
On the season, Jarry has an .883 save percentage and -3.9 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck.
New York has a clear edge in goal. Ilya Sorokin is likely to start, and he’s been solid, with a .915 save percentage and +5.0 goals saved above expected. Semyon Varlamov has been just as sharp in four appearances, so the Islanders are in good shape either way.
The rest of the matchup is closer than the names suggest. At 5-on-5, the Islanders hold 49.9% of the expected goals and the Oilers 48.8%. Edmonton’s edge has come from finishing, with a 13.3% shooting percentage at 5-on-5 that ranks third in the league, plus a 35.7% power play.
The Islanders also come home playing well after back-to-back road wins, 4-3 in Nashville on Tuesday and 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota on Thursday.
I’ll trust Sorokin to quiet some of that elite Edmonton offense and start the day with a home underdog.
Pick: Islanders Moneyline (+110, FanDuel)
Senators vs Sharks Pick
Ottawa gave up five goals in the first 40 minutes in Los Angeles on Thursday. Dylan Cozens scored twice during a four-goal third period to force overtime, but Quinton Byfield won it 6-5 for the Kings. Los Angeles finished with 38 shots to Ottawa’s 22.
That makes 20 goals against in four games for the Senators since Linus Ullmark went on injured reserve. The first of those games was a 6-2 loss to this same Sharks team.
Jonas Johansson took the loss against Los Angeles and has an .861 save percentage across three games. Samuel Ersson, who was in net for the loss to San Jose, sits at -4.6 goals saved above expected.
Ottawa plays in Anaheim tomorrow, which should mean a split between Ersson and Johansson in goal this weekend.
It feels like a lot of Ottawa’s nice early-season record can be attributed to Ullmark stopping 94.5% of the shots he faced. Ottawa is 1-2-1 without him, and the lone win was a 7-4 barn burner against the Rangers.
With the Sens relying on a backup in net again today, I’m all for another home underdog here.
Pick: Sharks Moneyline (+114, FanDuel)
Sabres vs Kings Pick
Remember those 38 shots Los Angeles put on Ottawa on Thursday? Seven of them came from Artemi Panarin, and six of those came on the power play. He also scored with the man advantage and assisted on Byfield’s overtime winner.
That’s been normal for Panarin this season. He has 39 shots on goal in 12 games, and has reached 3+ in nine of them. The Kings haven’t gotten much offense elsewhere in the lineup, so I don’t see that volume slowing down anytime soon.
Los Angeles is 28th at 5-on-5 in expected goals per 60, but Panarin is the trigger man on the first power-play unit. Buffalo’s penalty kill also just allowed three goals on four Anaheim chances Thursday, so any Sabres penalties would appear to be an added bonus.
At -130, FanDuel is implying about a 57% chance. Panarin has gone over this number 75% of the time this season, and with some injuries and lackluster production around him, the Kings need him firing as often as possible.
Pick: Artemi Panarin 3+ Shots on Goal (-130, FanDuel)
Maple Leafs vs Canucks Pick
Vancouver has allowed four or more goals in 10 of 15 games this season.
At 5-on-5, the Canucks have let up 44 goals, more than any other team, and the expected numbers align, with a league-high 3.14 expected goals against per 60.
Leevi Merilainen has started the last three games and has been around average. If Vancouver goes back to Kevin Lankinen, he has by far the worst numbers of any goalie this season: a 1-7 record, a 6.17 GAA, and an .808 save percentage.
On the other side, Toronto’s scoring has traveled well, with 32 goals in seven road games, better than 4.5 a night, and four or more in five of them.
The Maple Leafs have also gone over this number in four of their last five games overall, scoring 24 goals in that stretch.
Both sides of this matchup point to Toronto scoring, and 3.5 looks like a low bar against a team that has struggled to stop anyone.
Pick: Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3.5 (-130, FanDuel)
Flames vs Avalanche Pick
Calgary beat Seattle 6-2 at home last night behind four points from Matt Coronato, so tonight in Denver means three games in four nights for the Flames, with no rest and at altitude.
Colorado, meanwhile, has been home since beating New Jersey 5-2 on Wednesday.
It’s a similar setup to last Saturday, when we faded Tampa Bay in an easier back-to-back spot at altitude, the night after the Lightning played in Denver. Utah won that one 5-4.
Calgary’s situation gets even tougher in net. Devin Cooley, who was actually playing really well, went on injured reserve, and Dustin Wolf played last night.
That could leave Arsenii Sergeev, who was just called up from the AHL, to make the second start of his NHL career, and he’d be thrown into a tough one.
The road hasn’t been kind to the Flames either. Calgary is 1-4 away from home and has been outscored 22-8 in those games, most recently in Wednesday’s 4-0 loss in Edmonton.
The 5-on-5 matchup is just as lopsided. Colorado leads the NHL with 43 goals at 5-on-5, while Calgary has been outscored 35-19 in that category this season.
That offense has turned home wins into blowouts. The Avalanche’s five wins at home came by scores of 6-1, 8-4, 5-2, 6-3 and 5-2, and every one of them covered the puck line with room to spare. Colorado also won the first meeting between these teams 7-3 earlier this month.
A tired road team with a call-up likely in net against one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses is about as good as puck-line spots get, but you’ll have to pay some juice for it.
The moneyline is crazy at around -410, so I’ll lay the goal and a half.
Pick: Avalanche -1.5 (61¢, Polymarket)
