Saturday’s Late NHL Slate Breakdown: Expert’s Top 2 Bets (February 25)
Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Anderson of the Montreal Canadiens
Let's dive into my favorite widely available plays from the later Saturday NHL slate.
The lineup features a couple of exciting matchups, including a showdown between the top two teams in the West.
Stars (+100) vs. Golden Knights
Dallas is priced as a slight underdog on the road in LAs Vegas, but it's an easy case to make that the Stars should be a small favorite themselves in this spot.
The Stars will enjoy a massive goaltending edge with Jake Oettinger starting versus either Adin Hill or Laurent Brossoit, which is the center point of this argument.
Dallas suffered a humiliating loss at home Wednesday versus Chicago to extend its losing skid to five games, and the team is heading into this matchup at a low point in a strong season.
Even still, Dallas' overtime losses to the Bruins and Wild were solid performances, and its 3-1 loss at home to the Lightning was a strong showing.
If one or two of those matchups go the way they could have with luck in front of goal or even just winning the skills competitions past regulation, we are probably viewing Dallas differently entering this matchup.
There is a meaningful concern with the Stars roster holding little scoring punch beyond its stellar first line and top powerplay unit. Away from that concern, however, its process has remained very reasonable over the last stretch aside from the Blue Jackets and Blackhawks losses.
Vegas is at the opposite end of the spectrum entering this matchup after an ugly comeback win versus Calgary on Thursday, and the Knights have now won six of seven since the All-Star break, but with very similar underlying results to the Stars.
We will likely see an inspired effort from the Stars, who should logically generate an even amount of scoring chances with the Knights.
If the gameplay in this one is fairly even, backing Oettinger at +100 becomes an excellent proposition, and I like the value with the Stars on the road.
Pick: Dallas Stars (+100) |
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Josh Anderson Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-107)
Riding the hot hand is not always going to be a foolproof strategy for betting shot props, but I believe doing so in this instance makes sense with Josh Anderson.
Anderson is seeing significantly improved usage with Kirby Dach and Cole Caufield out of the lineup, which has caused a significant uptick in shots on goal recently.
Mainly, the loss of Dach is what really matters as Anderson moves onto Montreal's top even-strength line with Nick Suzuki.
In four games since Dach's injury, Anderson has averaged 4.75 shots on goal per game with an average of 5.5 attempts on goal and 5.0 unblocked attempts in those matchups.
On top of that, those matchups have come against Toronto, Carolina, New Jersey and Philadelphia. Outside of Philly, that is a far tougher-than-average slate of defensive sides, which makes generating shots for top liners extremely tough.
That leaves us with a lot of breathing room to hit three versus the Senators, who have allowed 33.92 shots against per 60 minutes of action over the last 10 games. I'll bet Anderson over 2.5 SOG, which BetRivers has at -107.
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