The Tampa Bay Lightning (48-24-6) and Montreal Canadiens (46-22-10) meet in an NHL battle for the Atlantic Division lead tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-100o / -120u). The Lightning are a -115 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lightning vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds, Pick
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | -115 |
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -254 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | -105 |
- Lightning vs. Canadiens Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+205), Canadiens +1.5 (-254)
- Lightning vs. Canadiens Over/Under: 6.5 (-100o / -120u)
- Lightning vs. Canadiens Moneyline: Lightning -115, Canadiens -105
Lightning vs Canadiens Kalshi Odds
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Lightning vs. Canadiens Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to hold onto their lead in the tightly contested Atlantic Division. They are well-positioned to do so down the stretch, given the team’s two-way dominance.
Entering this matchup, the Lightning rank second in goals scored per game and third in goals allowed per game. Tampa Bay is as strong analytically as it is statistically.
This season, the Lightning rank in the top nine in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) and expected goal share. They are one of four teams to rank in the top nine in all three categories.
Montreal Canadiens
While the Montreal Canadiens are a solid team, they fall short of Tampa Bay in several areas. Statistically, Montreal trails the Lightning in both goals scored per game and goals allowed per game.
Analytically, the Canadiens also rank behind Tampa Bay in xGF/60, xGA/60 and expected goal share. That leaves goaltending as another advantage for the Lightning, with Jakub Dobes expected to start for Montreal.
While Dobes has played well, he is projected to face one of the world's top goaltenders in Andrei Vasilevskiy. This season, Vasilevskiy holds the edge over Dobes in save percentage, goals-against average and wins.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction
Vasilevskiy enters Thursday as a strong favorite to win the Vezina Trophy. Through 55 starts this season, he is 37-14-4 with a .912 save percentage and a 2.32 goals-against average.
He has also performed well against Montreal. In the past nine meetings, Vasilevskiy is 6-3 with a .919 save percentage and a 2.00 goals-against average.
Pick: Lightning Moneyline (-113 | Play to -120)
