Tuesday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Hurricanes vs. Red Wings (March 1)

Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Odds

The red-hot Carolina Hurricanes head to the midwest as they take on the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday night. It’ll be the second time these teams will square off this season, with the Hurricanes winning 5-3 in November. Carolina comes in as the heavy favorite at -220 while the home Red Wings are the underdog at +185.

Carolina comes into this matchup as the best team in the East with 78 points. They’ve kicked into high gear recently, as they’re 6-2-2 in their last 10 games, and have won five in a row. Coach Rod Brind’Amour’s team always were a tough out, but this is taking it to a new level.

While the Red Wings opened a lot of eyes this season, it doesn’t seem like they’ll advance to the playoffs this season. Second half struggles have separated the Wings from the pack as they’ve gone 5-5 in their last 10, and have lost two in a row.

Hurricanes Firing on All Cylinders

The boys from Raleigh seem to be hitting their stride at the right time. While the East is stacked, the Hurricanes are taking the league by storm. Loaded with talent on all ends of the ice, it’s not a surprise to see why they have been so dominant.

Led by All Star Sebastian Aho, the Canes depth holds strong with Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Vinny Trocheck, and Jaccob Slavin. They will be without two key defensemen in Tony DeAngelo and Brendan Smith tonight, however.

With such elite talent, it allows them to create offense and drive play with the best of them. With a fifth-ranked goals per game (3.51), Carolina is sixth in expected goals with a 54.26 xGF% and creates the third-most high danger chances. They’re also deadly on the power play and are ranked fifth, scoring at a 25.2% clip.

It’s rare to find a team that’s so solid on both ends of the ice. The Canes are the best team at preventing goals, with a 2.37 goals against per game, but are 15th in high danger chances against. Their penalty kill is the best in the league, as they have a 90.2% success rate.

One thing that's held Carolina back was goaltending. However, this year has been a total 180 from years past. After Toronto gave up on Freddie Andersen, the Canes took a chance on him and he has flourished.

The Danish net-minder is currently posting a .930 SV% and a 27.9 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). Backup Antti Raanta is also having a solid year, posting a .909 SV% and a 3.1 GSAx.

Red Wings Hanging Tough, But Underlying Metrics Show Cracks

The future is very bright in the Motor City. Starting the season hot was a result of exceptional play by young guns like Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond (who are both favorites to win the Calder Trophy).

Captain Dylan Larkin is having a tremendous season, averaging over a point a game, and Tyler Bertuzzi is just under a point a game. There’s a couple of key injuries as they’ll be without Jakub Vrana and Mitchell Stephens.

Even with all the talent, the experience and structure are still lacking. Scoring only 2.81 goals per game, Detroit is one of the poorest teams at driving play. They have a 25th ranked 46.45 xGF%, and are 20th at creating high danger chances. Their power play is also one of the worst, where they score with the man advantage only 16.7% of the time.

With a young team, defense is often the last thing that develops, and right now, they’re sort of a mess. The Wings are 25th with a goals against per game of 3.46, and allow the second-most high danger chances. The penalty kill is just as bad, as they only have a 76.6% success rate.

Detroit goalie Alex Nedeljkovic will most likely get another shot at his old team. He was signed by Detroit after Carolina failed to offer him an extension, and he has done the best he could. The future is bright for Nedeljkovic but right now it’s a struggle. He’s currently posting a .903 SV% and a +1.0 GSAx.

Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Pick

This one has the potential to get ugly. The Hurricanes are getting hot at the right time, and the Red Wings are getting cold at the worst time. 

Carolina has the upper hand in every facet of this game. They’re elite in creating offense, and are elite on the power play and PK, while Detroit doesn’t generate consistent offense, and its special teams are abysmal.

I'll lay the -1.5 with the Canes.

Pick: Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+110)