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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Thursday, October 22, Nick Martin has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Nashville Predators ML +123 (bet365, Play to +122)
- Kings vs Islanders Regulation Tie +310 (FanDuel, Play to +290)
- Alex DeBrincat Anytime Goalscorer +135 (FanDuel, Play to +125)
Predators vs Bruins Pick
Last season, the Bruins significantly outscored their expected goals rate, and while the data isn't the be-all and end-all, oddsmakers and pundits such as myself still viewed them as clear regression candidates entering this season.
They've proven the doubters wrong thus far with a 7-2-1 record, but I'm willing to look like an idiot once again and fade them against a mediocre Predators team at these prices.
From an offensive standpoint, I'm still not sold that the Bruins are a team capable of finishing chances at a rate well above expectations. Per Evolving-Hockey, they've generated just 3.32 expected goals per 60 minutes while converting 14.24% of their shots, a rate that is generally unsustainable.
In the instances that it is more sustainable, teams are generating pre-shot movement for goaltenders and/or possessing much greater than average shooting talent throughout the lineup. It's hard for me to see how the Bruins fit into the rare grouping of teams to hold this kind of finishing rate, which makes the actual results seem unlikely to continue.
The Bruins have also allowed 3.56 xGA/60, and seen their strong goaltending tandem post a .922 save percentage. Jeremy Swayman may have deserved the Vezina last year and is, without debate, a top-five goaltender, but he's been relied upon quite heavily, and it's also realistic that the team may view this as a spot to start Michael DiPietro.
The Predators, meanwhile, have been quietly respectable amid a fairly tough schedule to start the year, and sit at 3-2-3 with two losses in shootouts. We won't oversell what the Predators are for the sake of this pick, but they seem entirely capable of making Thursday's game highly competitive versus an overvalued Bruins side.
At +123 I like taking a stab on the Predators coming out on the right side of what will likely be a closely contested matchup.
Pick: Nashville Predators Moneyline +123 (bet365, Play to +122)
Kings vs Islanders Pick
Ties hit at a historically high rate in the NHL last season, and so far this season 21.94% of all games have needed the extra session. While it always takes some luck to hit a regulation tie bet, there are some factors which I believe do help to indicate which games are more likely to be ties, and try to bet into this fun trend intelligently.
The Kings have spent more time in tied game states than any other side this season and seem likely to continue playing in closely fought games. They have not been nearly pathetic, as their overall record suggests (which was the reason we landed on them as big underdogs in their most recent matchup versus the Capitals), but likely won't prove to have the offensive upside to blow teams out of the water too often.
The Islanders check a lot of the same boxes, and though things may be a little different under Pete DeBoer this season, have generally been a team that profiles well for regulation tie bets in recent years.
My expectation is that the gameplay in this matchup will be quite even, and that with a likely goaltending matchup of Darcy Kuemper versus Ilya Sorokin, neither team will garner much separation on the scoreboard.
As noted, it always takes some luck to get any regulation tie bet home, but given how closely contested this game seems likely to be, this seems to be a good spot to bet on the regulation tie given the long price of +310.
Pick: Regulation Tie +310 (FanDuel, Play to +290)
Red Wings vs Canucks Pick
DeBrincat has scored 86 goals throughout his last 173 regular season games. He is without question one of the better finishers in the game, and is well adept at finding open pockets of space in the offensive zone. Per EvolvingHockey he's generated 4.58 expected goals this season and also averaged 3.88 shots per game.
While at +135 he is one of the most favored goalscorers on Thursday's docket, that price still looks quite playable to me given his chance creation, finishing ability and the opponent.
The Canucks have felt much less pathetic this season under new head coach Manny Malhotra but have still allowed a league high 4.46 xGA/60, and will likely have tank-commander Kevin Lankinen starting in goal, sporting a -11.0 GSAx rating thus far.
This sets up as a good spot to ride with a red-hot scorer in DeBrincat extending his goal-streak to three games.
Pick: Alex DeBrincat Anytime Goalscorer +135 (FanDuel, Play to +125)
