The Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights meet in Game 2 of the NHL Western Conference Semifinals tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Golden Knights are priced at +150 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+100o / -120u). The Golden Knights are a -165 favorite to win outright, while the Ducks are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Ducks vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Odds, Pick
| Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 6.5 +100o / -120u | +135 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 6.5 +100o / -120u | -160 |
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+150), Ducks +1.5 (-165)
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 6.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Ducks +140, Golden Knights -165
Ducks vs Golden Knights Polymarket Odds
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Ducks vs. Golden Knights Preview
Anaheim Ducks
While perhaps it was in part due to a ragged Edmonton Oilers side being overvalued, the Ducks proved to have a higher gear in Round One after an entirely unconvincing finish to the regular season. Oftentimes, when such a heavy underdog wins out in the NHL playoffs, puck-luck is a key part of the story, but the Ducks were a very deserving winner in Round One, and routinely exposed the Oilers with their speed and skill.
Game 1 of this series certainly did not follow the game script I was expecting, as Anaheim generated more offensive zone time than Vegas and led 12-6 in high-danger scoring chances at even strength.
It seemed reasonable to believe that the Ducks' strong attack off the rush, excellent power play, and ability to be clinical in front of the goal could provide them a chance in this series versus a team with a shaky netminder in goal. Though Anaheim actually fared quite well in Game 1 overall, it had a surprisingly hard time finishing quality looks against Hart, while Vegas managed to capitalize on meaningful scoring chances more effectively.
The Ducks lead 3.62 to 3.08 in expected goal share in Game 1, and those marks certainly wouldn't come as a surprise to any neutral observers who watched the game wire-to-wire.
Jackson LaCombe made a bizarre decision to pass up a point-blank empty net, while Vegas's go-ahead goal in the third came after a controversial decision to wash out an icing, in a situation where ties are generally always given to the defending team.
Knights skaters have unsurprisingly commented that they know Game 1's performance was not overly acceptable, and that they will need to be more aggressive in generating offensive zone time in this matchup. Things might be a little more difficult for Anaheim at even strength, but given its ability to convert chances in transition against the run of play and strong power play, its Game 1 performance should instil a lot of confidence that it is very much in this series.
Lukas Dostal played at a Vezina-calibre level in 2024-25, and at his best has proven capable of stealing games for a side that has generally been horrible defensively throughout his whole career. Dostal has had a surprisingly inconsistent campaign overall, and his shaky play has continued into the postseason as he holds a -3.6 GSAx and .879 save percentage in .878 save percentage in seven playoff starts.
Dostal is capable of playing at a much higher level, and the Ducks will certainly need him to elevate his play to have any realistic shot of making some noise the rest of the way.
Vegas Golden Knights
It was a surprisingly common take that the Knights did not truly deserve to get past the Utah Mammoth in Round 1, which was likely in part due to the fact that most neutral observers simply do not like the franchise, and it was not a stance that seemed logical statistically.
While Vegas did need some late-game heroics to win Games 4 and 5, it was also unlucky to ever be trailing in those games, and overall did a fairly good job of controlling play and locking things down defensively in the series. Vegas played to a 55.72% expected goal share, allowed only 2.68 xGA/60, and 24.83 shots against per 60.
In allowing 3.90 xGA/60 and generating only 22 shots, Game 1 of this series was arguably the Knights' worst performance of the postseason, and the Ducks did a better job creating sustained sequences in the offensive zone than the Mammoth did at any point in the series.
After solid performances in Game 6 of Round 1 and in the opener of this series, Hart suddenly holds a +0.5 GSAx rating and a .905 save percentage this postseason. While his numbers are now respectable, he still does not look overly fundamentally sound, and it seems too early to grade him as a strength rather than a weakness.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Prediction
While the Knights will likely elevate their overall game in this matchup and find a way to create more sustained zone time, it feels as though they are getting a lot of credit to still be priced as -165 favorites.
The Mammoth offered a solid performance in Game 1, then were able to scratch out a win in Game 2 as road underdogs, before the more physical, experienced Knights side found their way in the later stages of the series.
It wouldn't surprise me if this series followed a similar script, and the Ducks look to be the side offering more value in Game 2. Hart still looks to be somewhat of a question mark, and if the talented young Ducks can create a similar output of offensive chances in Wednesday's matchup, a much better offensive output seems logical.
And as we have discussed countless times in my pieces during my six years at Action, it still seems as though home ice advantage is being baked too heavily into postseason prices.
Road teams hold a +6.3% ROI over a 659-game sample dating back to the 2016 postseason (excluding COVID postseasons). It's not a trend that I'll blindly back, but it is an encouraging dataset in spots where the road side looks to be a strong option, and home ice advantage is seemingly being priced in to the number.
A price of +140 looks to be a solid number to back the Ducks finding a way to even up the series on Wednesday.
Pick: Anaheim Ducks Moneyline +140 (BetMGM, Play to +130)
