The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres meet in Game 1 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Sabres are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-123o / +103u). The Sabres are a -130 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +106 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -227 | 5.5 -123o / +103u | +106 |
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +187 | 5.5 -123o / +103u | -130 |
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Spread: Sabres -1.5 (+187 ), Canadiens +1.5 (-227)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Over/Under: 5.5 (-123o / +103u)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Moneyline: Canadiens +106, Sabres -130
Canadiens vs Sabres Kalshi Odds
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Canadiens vs. Sabres Preview
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal went band-for-band with one of the NHL’s most dangerous postseason teams in the Tampa Bay Lightning.
And even though they just escaped by the skin of their teeth, the Habs showed the world that they’re ready for the next step.
The Canadiens will need more from their top line featuring Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, though. Slafkovsky started the first round with a hat trick in Game 1, and since then, hasn't recorded a single point. Meanwhile, Caufield had a career year with 51 goals, and has only put up one in the seven games played.
Suzuki, I’m hardly concerned with, as he’s tied for the team’s leading scorer with Lane Hutson. But Montreal will need more from both Slafkovsky and Caufield down the stretch.
It’s not just the top line that I’m concerned about, because as a whole, the Habs were not very good at 5-on-5 play. In the first round, they were ranked 13th out of 16 teams in expected goals with a 47.02 xGF%
Defensively, they were fine with an 11.9 xGA, but the star of the show was goaltender Jakub Dobes, who was a stonewall in Game 7 against the Lightning. In the playoffs, he’s played to a .923 SV% and a 4.4 GSAx.
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo proved to the hockey world that this season was not a sham, after stopping the Bruins in the first round with a 4-2 series win.
A lot of the success came from Alex Lyon, who was the catalyst for the Sabres’ dream season earlier this year. Since coming in relief for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Lyon has posted crazy good numbers, with a .955 SV% and a 4.6 GSAx.
They have also been exceptional at 5-on-5 play. The Sabres have played to a 51.87 xGF%, which is sixth among all playoff teams, and third with a 10.53 xGA.
Buffalo’s top dogs shone bright in the first round, with the line of Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch being one of the more formidable lines in the playoffs. All three players lead the team in scoring, with both Tuch and Thompson playing on a point-per-game-plus pace.
I’ve also been impressed by the Sabres’ defensive corps. Rasmus Dahlin was always among the league’s elite on the blue line, but we’ve seen exceptional play by Bowen Byram and Owen Power as well.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction
The difference between this series and the first round for Montreal is that the Habs will be going toe-to-toe with a team extremely similar to them.
One that has youthful energy and a little bite to their game.
I think this series has a chance to go the distance, which can’t be fun for Habs fans to hear, since they just had to endure that last round.
Right now, I think the Sabres carry the momentum.
Buffalo’s power play wasn’t good at all in the first round, but it managed to perform exceptionally well on the penalty kill, with an 87.5% success rate. Montreal, on the other hand, had an elite power play in the first round, scoring on 40% of its attempts.
Now, the Habs have statistically been a dominant team on the road. Just look at how they handled the Bolts in Game 7. For now, though, I think the Sabres are the team to look out for.
At -130, I think Sabres moneyline is a solid play here.
Pick: Buffalo Sabres Moneyline (-130, FanDuel)
