The Utah Mammoth will look to keep their season alive when they host the Vegas Golden Knights for Game 6 Friday evening. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Golden Knights are priced at +220 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-121o / +101u). The Golden Knights are a -115 favorite to win outright, while the Mammoth are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Golden Knights vs. Mammoth predictions and NHL picks.
Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Odds, Pick
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +220 | 5.5 -121o / +101u | -115 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -272 | 5.5 -121o / +101u | -105 |
- Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+220), Mammoth +1.5 (-272)
- Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Over/Under: 5.5 (-121o / +101u)
- Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Moneyline: Golden Knights -115, Mammoth -105
Golden Knights vs Mammoth Polymarket Odds
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Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Preview
Vegas Golden Knights
John Tortorella stated on several occasions that he did not intend to make notable systematic changes after he was appointed head coach with just eight games left in the regular season and understood that he was mainly being brought in to shift the vibe and simply offer a new voice.
Tortorella's viewpoint made a lot of sense, as the Knights' underlying results were strong under former head coach Bruce Cassidy, particularly defensively, something that was hidden by just how ugly the team's goaltending had been.
The Knights played to a record of 7-1-0 in the final eight regular-season games, allowed only 2.38 xGA/60, and held a 63.62% expected goal share.
Though Utah's talented young roster has had some strong flashes in this series, the Golden Knights have generally found success with a tight-checking, methodical approach at even strength. The Knights have allowed only 2.26 xGA/60 in the series, but Carter Hart has struggled to an .882 save percentage, which has kept the series interesting.
Vegas offers a physical, mobile defensive core, and each of their top three forwards, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner, are elite defensively. While the Mammoth's top stars have managed solid production in the series, only Utah's second line has been able to truly control the play effectively.
While Vegas did require a late empty-net equalizer to win Game 5, the fairly common perception that the Golden Knights do not deserve to be up in the series does not make a lot of sense, and to me, it likely revolves around the fact that most neutral observers simply do not like the Knights franchise and are more eager to root for an exciting young Mammoth side.
The Golden Knights closed at -155 in Game 5 and are now just slight favorites at -115. The price change is likely in part due to the fact that Utah played much better in Game 5 than it did in Game 4, but it is also largely due to the perceived home-ice advantage.
But as readers who are most familiar with my work will know, home-ice advantage is generally overvalued this time of year. Dating back to the 2015 postseason (excluding COVID postseasons), road teams are 318-332 and hold a +6.4% ROI.
Given that higher seeds (better teams on average) play more home games, road teams winning 49.7% of the time over a 650-game sample tells us that generally we do not want to lay bigger numbers on the home side if the basis of the handicap is that home-ice advantage will matter.
While Vegas has done a relatively solid job defensively in the series, it is fighting an uphill battle in trying to insulate Hart enough to find success. Hart holds a -2.9 GSAx rating, and his pre-shot movement and overall reading of the play have simply not looked good.
Utah Mammoth
When I last wrote on this series, we backed the Mammoth at +130 in Game 2. By no means have they been dominated in this series, but it's difficult to say that they have been effective enough overall to now be priced as favorites in a spot where home-ice advantage seemingly will not count for much.
The Mammoth's second line of Dylan Guenther, Kailer Yamamoto, and Logan Cooley has been exceptional in the series. They have played to a 76.7% expected goal share and scored 3.79 goals per 60. The fanbase has to be quite pleased with the way two of its most important pieces moving forward, Guenther and Cooley, have performed in their first taste of postseason action.
Utah's bottom six have struggled to this point, which places a lot of pressure on Clayton Keller's unit and Cooley's line to outplay the Knights' top stars. The talent littered throughout Utah's top two lines is quite strong, but it is fighting a tough battle versus a Knights side with superior defensive depth.
Utah's power play has clicked at just 7.7% in the series, which is one obvious area for improvement. While the Knights' penalty kill looks quite effective, the Mammoth's top unit looks to offer an effective look on paper and has to be disappointed with the lack of quality looks they are generating with a highly convincing goaltender in the Knights' cage.
Karel Vejmelka has also not had a great series to this point, as he holds a -2.0 GSAx and a .890 save percentage through five games.
Golden Knights vs. Mammoth Prediction
The prices on sides in this matchup look fair at the time of writing, and it's hard to build a case for either option. Utah has been right there in this series, but ultimately I'm not sure it has controlled play effectively enough to lay -115 in this spot.
Backing the first period to feature under 1.5 total goals at -105 is my favorite bet from this matchup. The first-period under has gone 24-17, with games averaging just 1.29 combined goals.
While that trend is a little less enticing given that this series has been more high-scoring than most others and neither goaltender has been great, there's still a good case that this is a good spot to ride with what has been an effective trend.
On average, players and coaches tend to lean toward making conservative decisions in Games 6 and 7, and soft defensive breakdowns tend to dry up. There also tends to be fewer penalties on average, which is likely due to the fact that players are less committed to risking penalties to assert themselves physically at this stage of a series, while referees are less keen to make soft calls.
While neither goaltender has been very effective, from simply a chance-creation standpoint, this series has been tight-checking, and soft defensive lapses likely will not be common early on in this high-pressure matchup.
Pick: First Period Under 1.5 Goals
