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2020 Election Odds: Record $564 Million Bet on Trump vs. Biden Presidential Race at Betfair, Double 2016 Election

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Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

2020 Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Percent Chance
Donald Trump
+470
17.1%
Joe Biden
-556
82.9%
Odds as of 10:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday and via European exchange Betfair. Note that the implied probabilities do not include the tax the book charges.

Election Day Odds Updates

10:45 a.m. ET

Joe Biden has taken a commanding lead in the betting markets, with his implied probability crossing 80% on Wednesday morning.

European sportsbook Betfair has also crossed a major milestone, reaching $564 million, almost exactly double the betting handle of the 2016 election.

11:30 p.m. ET

If there were any doubt that a U.S. presidential election would be a multi-billion dollar market, that was ended Tuesday night.

European betting site Betfair, on their exchange alone, saw more than $500 million in bets come in — for context, the 2016 election did $281.9 million in bets when adjusting for inflation.

To put the 2020 U.S. presidential betting market into perspective, Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom said the most-bet sporting event in Betfair’s history was the fight between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor on Aug. 26, 2017. That bout pulled in an inflation-adjusted $71.5 million.

4:30 p.m. ET

Betfair, a European sportsbook, has officially cracked $430 million wagered on its “Next U.S. President” market within. The current odds imply Joe Biden has a 69% chance to win, compared to 31% for President Donald Trump.

And while the $430 million that’s been wagered on this market is nearly split 50-50 between Biden and Trump, the 10 biggest bets are all on Biden.

Here’s a full rundown:

Amount
Bet
Odds
$1,300,000
Biden to win
-185
$650,000
Biden to win
-182
$650,000
Biden to win
-200
$402,285
Biden to win
-189
$401,606
Biden to win
-200
$398,009
Biden to win
-200
$390,000
Biden to win
-196
$390,000
Biden to win
-200
$388,515
Biden to win
-189
$352,042
Biden to win
-200

10:45 a.m. ET

Two huge bets have come in on Joe Biden to win the Presidency this morning at Betfair in Europe:

  • $504,000 on Biden at -200 odds. Would profit $248,000
  • $403,000 on Biden at -200 odds. Would profit $201,000

The largest bet Betfair has taken on the race is a $1.3 million wager on Biden that would net $700,000 if the former Vice President wins the presidency.

These large wagers on Biden have coincided with a shift in the overall betting odds for the race. Donald Trump had seen the odds move his way early this morning, but that has since reverted to similar odds to what we saw overnight (roughly 67% chance for Biden, 33% chance for Trump).

With the increased activity, the Betfair Exchange market for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election is now up to more than $415 million in wagers, shattering the previous record for the most-bet event in the company’s 20-year history.

8:30 a.m. ET

European bookmaker Betfair has officially crossed the $400 million threshold for its 2020 U.S. Presidential Election handle — $403 million, to be exact. It’s the most ever wagered on a single event in Betfair’s 20-year history.

For context, the 2016 Presidential Race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton generated $281.9 million in bets when adjusting for inflation. It had been Betfair’s most-bet event ever before that record was shattered this year.

As we reported in our Election Day Odds Tracker, Betfair shifted its odds pretty significantly overnight, giving Trump about a 5% boost in his chances to win a second term.

Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom told The Action Network on Tuesday morning that the odds movement was the result of “a big run of bets as confidence grows in four more years.” He added, “While Biden still commands a greater share of money bet, the action appears to be forcing Trump’s odds shorter as bettors try to avoid missing the boat the second time around.”

Looking for more election odds? Subscribe to The Action Network’s newsletter to get updates throughout the 2020 race.

Monday Updates

Betting on the U.S. Presidential Election is not legal in the United States, but in Europe, where it is, it’s breaking records.

England-based sportsbook Betfair, which is owned by the same conglomerate that owns FanDuel, says the U.S Presidential Election is now the single-most bet event in the sportsbook’s history, easily breaking the record that was set by the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.

As of 3 p.m. ET, Betfair Exchange, its peer-to-peer betting platform, has seen $369 million worth of bets on the race, company spokesman Sam Rosbottom tells the Action Network. Betting expected to be fast and furious over the next 24 hours that it’s possible that the total will surpass $500 million in wagers. For context, the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election did $281.9 million in bets when adjusting for inflation.

“We’ve never seen anything like this,” Rosbottom said Monday.

To put the 2020 U.S. Presidential betting market in perspective, Rosbottom said the most-bet sporting event in Betfair’s history was the fight between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor on Aug. 26, 2017. That bout pulled in an inflation-adjusted $71.5 million.

Rosbottom said that while slightly more bets have been made on Trump (51%), more money is on Biden at their shop.

Of the money that has been bet, 50.6% of the money ($187 million) has been bet on Biden and 46.6% ($172 million) has been wagered on Trump, with $10 million bet on other candidates earlier in the year.

Rosbottom said that the 10 biggest bets they’ve taken have all been on Biden and the largest bet they’ve handled so far is a $1.3 million punt on Biden that would net $700,000 if the former Vice President wins the presidency.

An interesting plotline that has developed over the past few weeks is that Trump’s betting odds, which currently sit at +200 (33.3% implied probability) do not reflect how his chances are portrayed in polls or leading models, like FiveThirtyEight and The Economist, which have Biden at 89% and 96%, respectively, at the time of writing.

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Part of what’s driving the gap between where the forecasts and the betting market stand is because of what happened in 2016 when Trump upset the odds and defied the models to win the election over Hilary Clinton.

If the election isn’t won in a landslide, it’s possible that it will take many days to sort out who won. Rosbottom said the Betfair Exchange will continue to stay open and oversee the bets until a decision is made. Betfair makes its money by regulating the bets on its exchange and taking a fee from the winner’s earnings.

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