President Donald Trump’s approval rating just touched a new floor, and prediction markets are already pricing in what that could mean for control of Congress. The headline number tells one part of the story, but it’s worth seeing how it holds up against the broader polling picture. Before getting into the numbers, grab a Kalshi promo code, read our Kalshi review, and for more picks and analysis across sports and politics, download the Action Network app.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Trump’s Approval Rating Today: What the Reuters/Ipsos Poll Found
A Reuters/Ipsos poll fielded October 16-19 put Trump’s approval at 31%, with 66% disapproving. That’s down a point from two weeks earlier and the lowest reading of either of his terms in office. The survey covered 1,679 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of 2 points for the full sample.
The same poll asked respondents which party they’d back if the midterms were held today: the generic ballot question. Registered voters favored Democrats 47% to 35%, a 12-point edge that’s the widest Reuters/Ipsos has recorded this cycle.
Don't forget to visit Prediction Pro and our midterms predictions for more analysis before Election Day.
Trump Approval Rating Average: Where the Aggregators Stand
A single poll rarely tells the full story on its own, which is why trackers blend dozens of surveys into one average. On October 16, RealClearPolitics had Trump at roughly 38.7% approval, Silver Bulletin had him at 37.5%. Put together, the major aggregators were clustered around 37%: 6 points above where Reuters/Ipsos landed three days later.
Individual polls swing based on timing, sample, and methodology, while averages smooth those swings out by weighting multiple surveys at once.
| Tracker | Approve | Disapprove |
| RealClearPolitics | 38.7% | 59.4% |
| Silver Bulletin | 37.5% | 59.8% |
| New York Times | 37.0% | 61.0% |
Why a Single Poll Isn’t the Number Prediction Markets Settle On
Here’s the part most coverage of the Reuters/Ipsos poll skips: prediction markets pricing Trump’s approval aren’t tracking any one headline number. Kalshi runs a recurring contract asking whether the RCP Average will land above or below a given threshold on a specific date: currently priced near 38.6% for October 21. The resolution source is RealClearPolitics itself, specifically the “Approve” column in its “President Trump Job Approval” table.
That means a poll like Reuters/Ipsos, however record-setting its own number, only moves the needle by the fraction it contributes to that broader average. Traders watching this contract are pricing the aggregate, not the latest headline.
What Trump’s 31% Approval Means for the Midterms
Weak approval numbers and a wide generic-ballot gap tend to show up in how traders price control of Congress, and that’s roughly what’s happening here. Kalshi has Democrats at 90.8% to win the House, with Polymarket close behind at 92%, both pointing toward the same outcome. The Senate picture is tighter: Kalshi has Democrats at 66%, Polymarket at 65%, putting the race for Senate control in the low-to-mid 60s.
None of this guarantees an outcome 3 weeks out from Election Day: it points toward where traders currently see the race. Here is closer look at how that Senate math breaks down.
Trump Approval Rating FAQ
What is Trump’s current approval rating?
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 16-19 put it at 31%, the lowest of either term. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics and others run several points higher, closer to 37-38%.
Why do polls show different numbers for Trump’s approval?
Individual surveys vary by sample size, timing, and methodology. Aggregators like RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin average many polls together, which smooths out single-poll swings.
What do prediction markets say about the 2026 midterms?
Kalshi and Polymarket both price Democrats as strong favorites for the House, in the low-90s, with the Senate closer at roughly 65-66%.
