2020 Washington Democratic Primary Odds: Bernie Sanders Best Chance for A Victory on Tuesday

Politics

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Photo credit: Mario Tama/Getty Images. Pictured: Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden

Katie Richcreek

Updated:

Sep 23, 2021, 04:44 PM EDT

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With former Vice President Joe Biden favored in all six state primaries and caucuses on Tuesday, Bernie Sanders' best chance for a victory is in Washington, according to the betting markets.
The Vermont senator is a short +138 underdog as of noon ET on Tuesday, which translates to a 37.37% implied probability of winning the most delegates in the state.
Biden still has a significant edge, though, with his odds rising from -149 to -227 over the past 18 hours -- that's a 61.75% implied probability.

The 2020 Democratic Primary marches on with six more states casting their votes on Tuesday: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington.

Between those six states, there are 352 delegates up for grabs, or 8.8% of the 3,979 total. Washington has the second-most of the group (89).

Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. So, for example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Washington to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state's delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.

Coming off a bevy of Super Tuesday wins, former vice president Biden leads the field in overall delegates (664) as well as the popular vote.

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Washington's 89 delegates represent 2.2% of the overall number, and Biden is narrowly favored to secure a majority according to European sportsbook Betfair, which gives him -149 odds to win — that means you'd have to bet $149 to win $100 with a Biden victory. His juice-free implied probability of winning is 54%, which means Vermont senator Bernie Sanders isn't far behind with a 45.1% vig-free implied probability of winning at -100 odds.

FiveThirtyEight's model also shows this being a close race: They give Biden a 51% chance to win the most delegates in the state and Sanders a 49% chance, forecasting both to win an average of 44 of the 89 possible delegates.

You'll find the full Washington primary odds via Betfair below. Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

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