2020 Washington Democratic Primary Odds: Bernie Sanders Best Chance for A Victory on Tuesday

2020 Washington Democratic Primary Odds: Bernie Sanders Best Chance for A Victory on Tuesday article feature image
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Photo credit: Mario Tama/Getty Images. Pictured: Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden

  • With former Vice President Joe Biden favored in all six state primaries and caucuses on Tuesday, Bernie Sanders' best chance for a victory is in Washington, according to the betting markets.
  • The Vermont senator is a short +138 underdog as of noon ET on Tuesday, which translates to a 37.37% implied probability of winning the most delegates in the state.
  • Biden still has a significant edge, though, with his odds rising from -149 to -227 over the past 18 hours -- that's a 61.75% implied probability.

The 2020 Democratic Primary marches on with six more states casting their votes on Tuesday: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington.

Between those six states, there are 352 delegates up for grabs, or 8.8% of the 3,979 total. Washington has the second-most of the group (89).

Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. So, for example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Washington to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.

Coming off a bevy of Super Tuesday wins, former vice president Biden leads the field in overall delegates (664) as well as the popular vote.


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Washington’s 89 delegates represent 2.2% of the overall number, and Biden is narrowly favored to secure a majority according to European sportsbook Betfair, which gives him -149 odds to win — that means you’d have to bet $149 to win $100 with a Biden victory. His juice-free implied probability of winning is 54%, which means Vermont senator Bernie Sanders isn’t far behind with a 45.1% vig-free implied probability of winning at -100 odds.

FiveThirtyEight’s model also shows this being a close race: They give Biden a 51% chance to win the most delegates in the state and Sanders a 49% chance, forecasting both to win an average of 44 of the 89 possible delegates.

You’ll find the full Washington primary odds via Betfair below. Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

2020 Washington Democratic Primary Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -149 means that if you bet $149 on Joe Biden, you’d profit $100 if he wins. And -100 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $100.

  • Joe Biden: -149, 54.0% implied probability
  • Bernie Sanders: -100, 45.1% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability

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