The Midterms may be in the rearview mirror, but election officials in Alaska and Mississippi are still processing ballots that will ultimately determine the outcome of the Senate races in those states.
Democratic challengers Mary Peltola and Scott Colom hold narrow leads over incumbent Republican Senators Dan Sullivan and Cindy Hyde-Smith, but on prediction markets, those razor-thin margins translate into massive odds.
Alaska Senate Results: Peltola Leads Sullivan by 637 Votes
Democratic challenger Mary Peltola clings to a razor-thin 637-vote lead over incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, but with election officials continuing to process ballots, that margin could shift at any moment.
Alaska is still counting, and it's not because election officials are slow at their jobs. The Alaska Division of Elections operates on an extended post-election schedule, deferring immediate full counts until statutory deadlines pass for mail-in and questioned ballots.
With this in mind, Sullivan’s camp remains confident that late-arriving military and overseas absentee ballots will tilt the final count back in his favor, while Peltola’s campaign points to historic strength in rural hubs as the key to preserving her lead.
Today, we break down the current state of these Senate seat odds and what they mean for the balance of power. Before diving in, be sure to grab our Kalshi promo code and download the Action Network app to get the best trading insights.
When Alaska Counts Next: Ballot Updates Nov. 13 and 18
The next inflection point arrives this Friday, November 13, when election boards process the initial wave of absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day, alongside verified questioned ballots from regional distribution centers. That release will provide the first meaningful test of whether Peltola’s narrow 637-vote edge can endure.
The definitive benchmark lands on November 18, representing the state’s statutory deadline to receive all overseas and military absentee ballots. Once those international envelopes are counted and certified, state officials will assess whether either candidate cracked the 50% threshold.
Under Alaska’s ranked-choice political voting system, if neither candidate secures a majority above 50% after all votes are tabulated, the state will trigger an instant runoff tabulation later this month.
How “Decoy Dan” Ballots Could Decide It
One of the most incredible stories of this election cycle was the candidacy of Daniel J. Sullivan, a.k.a. "Decoy Dan", the retiree placed on the Democratic ballot simply for sharing a name with the incumbent Republican senator.
That controversial strategy became the focal point of fierce debate and even sparked ongoing Department of Justice inquiries. What makes it remarkable is that "Decoy Dan" garnered 3,600 votes, more than five times the razor-thin margin separating Peltola and Sullivan.
Former President Donald Trump demanded that Daniel J. Sullivan's votes be awarded directly to Sen. Sullivan. "The vote totals for the Fake Dan Sullivan, plus the other 'slug' that the Dems put on the Ballot, should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan, and the Election is over – He easily wins," Trump posted on Truth Social.
Mississippi Senate Results: Colom’s Lead Over Hyde-Smith
With 96% of ballots now processed, Democratic challenger Scott Colom leads the Mississippi Senate race by 2,574 votes over incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith.
Colom’s lead is largely driven by unprecedented mobilization in the Mississippi Delta alongside dominant margins throughout the Jackson metropolitan area in Hinds County. However, the final outcome remains unsettled as county election commissions work through an outstanding pool of uncounted ballots.
According to Mississippi's Secretary of State Michael Watson, 75 of 82 counties have uploaded their unofficial election results. He says just over 2,800 absentee mail-in ballots are still out and 12,767 affidavit ballots have been processed. About 77% of them have been accepted.
Mississippi Has No Automatic Recount: What Happens Next
Mississippi state election code contains no provision for an automatic recount, regardless of how razor-thin the final margin of victory. Instead, once county election commissions complete their job, any trailing candidate seeking a review must initiate an explicit legal challenge.
The candidate must file a formal petition in the relevant circuit court, bearing the financial burden of the process and demonstrating concrete evidence of irregularity, fraud, or malfunction rather than simply relying on a narrow deficit. The court then determines if the claim has any weight and if a recount is truly needed.
What the Two Seats Mean for the Senate
The outcome of these two Senate seats will not alter the majority secured by Democrats in the upper chamber, but it carries significant weight in determining whether that majority is comfortable or hanging by a thread.
A two-seat swing represents the difference between a functional working majority and a fractured chamber that is subject to individual centrist defectors, budget reconciliations, and executive appointments.
Right now, Democrats hold 54 seats. Securing both Alaska and Mississippi would grant them full control over committee gavels, subpoena authorization, and the floor agenda without relying on tie-breaking votes from the vice president.
Alaska and Mississippi Senate Odds Today
Alaska Senate Race Odds
On Kalshi, traders are convinced that Peltola’s lead will not only hold steady, but widen. That is why she commands the market with nearly a 97% implied probability—a staggering figure pricing in an outright victory over the Republican candidate.
The inflection point in this prediction market came on the November 3 election itself, when Peltola surged from 68% up to her current pricing as a heavy favorite.
Mississippi Senate Race Odds
A similar dynamic is playing out in the Mississippi market. Scott Colom holds a commanding lead, trading with 98% implied odds that leave little room for doubt. His contract has steadily gained traction across subsequent official updates, where his lead over Hyde-Smith continues to widen a handful of votes at a time.
