Democratic or Republican Congress? With just one week left before Election Day, that’s still the hardest number in American politics to pin down. Opinions keep piling up: polls, social media takes, one prediction after another about how this ends.
The country’s balance of power gets settled in seven days, and the shape of Congress for the next two years rests with whoever shows up to vote. Prediction markets have swapped front-runners more than once this cycle, and the price sitting on screen this morning is no guarantee of where it lands by tonight.
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Senate Control Odds Today
As of today, the question of who will control the Senate in 2026 comes down to one number: Polymarket’s “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” contract has Democrats priced at 66% to take the chamber, with Republicans at 35%, on volume north of $9.4 million. That’s up a point from where it closed yesterday. But the trend holds: traders think Democrats are increasingly likely to win control of the Senate.
Democrats haven’t always held that edge. For most of the past year, traders gave the party only a long-shot chance at flipping the chamber. That changed briefly in April, when Democrats took the lead for the first time in the market’s history, only for Republicans to pull back in front soon after. Democrats reclaimed the favorite’s spot on September 14, and the number has climbed in their direction most weeks since: Kalshi had Democrats at 62% by October 15 and 65% by October 20.
Why the shift? A mix of factors is probably behind it: persistent inflation worries, Trump’s sliding approval numbers, and lingering fallout from the Iran conflict earlier this year likely all played some role in how traders read the race. None of it is settled, though.
The House side of the Balance of Power is far less contested; Kalshi has long priced Democrats as roughly a 9-in-10 favorite there. The Senate is the piece still genuinely in play. Whichever way this number is pointing today, it’s pointed the other way at least once already this cycle.
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The Races Driving Senate Control Odds
Three contests are doing most of the work behind that national number.
MICHIGAN:
Abdul El-Sayed (D) is priced at 69% on Polymarket to hold the seat Sen. Gary Peters is vacating, against Mike Rogers (R) at 31%. See the latest Michigan Senate Race movement here.
TEXAS:
James Talarico (D) jumped to 68% on Polymarket, up four points in a single day, against Ken Paxton (R) at 33%. Talarico has significantly outrun Paxton this Texas Senate Race cycle, and Republicans have sent President Trump into the state more than once down the stretch to shore up support.
GEORGIA:
Jon Ossoff (D) is priced close to a lock at 96% against Mike Collins (R) at 4%. The gap in the Georgia Senate Race between Ossoff and Collins has barely moved since early October.
Senate Control Odds vs. the Polling Averages
Zoom out, and the same pattern shows up across all three races: prediction markets are running well ahead of what the polls show. Georgia’s gap is the widest by far: Polymarket treats an Ossoff win as close to a lock, while the polling shows a solid lead, not a landslide. Michigan and Texas tell a tighter story: both races sit inside the margin of error in the latest polling, yet markets have priced El-Sayed and Talarico as clear favorites all the same.
| State | Latest Poll | Polymarket Odds |
| Georgia | Ossoff +8 (AJC, Oct. 21) | Ossoff 96% |
| Michigan | El-Sayed +2 (Marist, Oct. 18) | El-Sayed 69% |
| Texas | Talarico +2 (Univ. of Houston, Oct. 20) | Talarico 68% |
Part of that gap comes down to how each signal works. A poll is a single snapshot, averaged out over a few days of calls and texts. A market updates by the second, pricing in fundraising hauls, ad spending, early-vote trends and every stumble on the trail the moment traders notice it. The rest may just be psychology: traders treating a small, steady polling lead as more likely to hold than any one poll can promise on its own. Either way, the gap between the two signals is wide enough this cycle to be worth watching both, instead of leaning on just one.
Senate Control Odds: The Last Week Before Election Day
The marquee debates are behind us: Georgia and Michigan both held their final face-offs earlier in October, so the closing week is mostly about turnout, not messaging.
Early voting is already outpacing past midterm cycles. More than 23 million ballots had been cast nationally as of October 23, with Democrats and independents returning ballots at a faster rate than Republicans in several states hosting competitive Senate races, according to tracking cited by political scientist Michael Bitzer. Texas closes its early-voting window on October 30; other states keep counting straight through Election Day.
From here, expect daily early-vote updates, one more round of final polling, and prediction market prices that keep shifting right up to November 3: when the Senate control contract, along with the Michigan, Texas and Georgia races, is scheduled to resolve.
If you want to read more about politics, visit Prediction Pro and read our midterms predictions.
