Donald Trump told his own supporters as much at one of his midterm rallies: “If we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me.” Was that a real warning or a turnout tactic aimed at the GOP base? Prediction markets don’t settle that question, but the numbers tell their own story. Kalshi’s near-term impeachment contract has traded more than $5 million this year, and its price keeps tracking one thing: who controls the House after Nov. 3.
Trump Impeachment Odds Right Now
As of this week, Kalshi prices a 53% chance that the House impeaches Trump before Aug. 1, 2027, dropping to 47% for a July 2027 deadline and 43% for June 2027. Those numbers sit well below where this question has traded at its peak.
Kalshi’s longer-dated impeachment contract, which runs through early 2028, touched 66.6% this fall: a contract that had logged $2.76 million in volume as of that reading. Polymarket’s version, which tracks the full length of Trump’s second term, hit 69% back in June.
This isn’t Trump’s first time dealing with impeachment, either. “I’ve become very good at beating them in impeachment,” he said during the same Texas–Oklahoma campaign swing. He has already been impeached twice, in 2019 and 2021, and the Senate acquitted him both times; a track record that keeps removal odds far below impeachment odds.
That gap matters. “Before the end of his term” and “sometime this year” are two different questions, and traders have always priced them differently. The near-dated contracts move slowly because nothing structural has changed: the House that would need to vote on articles is still run by Republicans. The longer-dated contract prices in a Congress that doesn’t exist yet: one that could look very different after Nov. 3.
Why Trump Impeachment Odds Depend on House Control
Impeachment starts and ends in the House. A simple majority has to agree to bring articles to the floor, and the party in charge decides what gets a vote. Markets price impeachment and removal as two different contracts, which is why the removal number has consistently sat far lower than the impeachment number.
| What | Current number |
| Democrats' odds to win the House (Kalshi) | 90.65% |
| Democrats' odds to win the House (Polymarket) | 91.5% |
| Democrats' current House seats | 214 of 435 |
| Votes needed to impeach (House majority) | 218 of 435 |
| Votes needed to convict and remove (Senate) | 67 of 100 |
That structural fact turns the impeachment contract into something closer to a derivative of House control odds than an independent read on Trump himself. Right now, that underlying market isn’t close, with Democrats favored to flip the House.
A Republican-held House has shown zero interest in impeachment articles this term, so today’s lower impeachment price mostly reflects a chamber that has no plan to act before January.
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How the Midterms Could Move Trump Impeachment Odds
A Democratic flip wouldn’t guarantee impeachment, but it would open a door that’s currently shut. Traders would likely reprice the contract higher the moment a new Democratic majority is seated in January, since that majority could bring articles whenever it chooses, even with plenty of members still hesitant to use that power.
A newly elected majority wouldn’t take its seats until January 2027, leaving roughly two years before Trump’s term ends in January 2029 to bring and pass articles: plenty of time by legislative standards, though House leadership would still have to decide it’s worth the floor time. In other words, that decision would sit with whatever Democratic majority takes the House.
Rep. Becca Balint, reflecting on an earlier push to impeach Trump, told The Washington Examiner: “We’ve impeached him twice. We don’t have the votes.” That’s the key: having the votes to try isn’t the same as having the votes to win.
Now picture the other scenario: the one prediction markets currently treat as far less likely. If the GOP keeps its House majority, the structural path to impeachment stays closed for the rest of Trump’s second term, and the contract would likely drift toward single digit, not because views on Trump shift, but because the mechanism to act on them disappears. Or it would come down to Republicans choosing to pursue impeachment themselves: something that looks unlikely today.
None of this predicts what Congress will actually do. It describes how traders are likely to react to each outcome, based on what the House math allows.
Trump Impeachment Odds: What Happens After Nov. 3
The impeachment contract won’t move much on its own between now and Election Day. What moves it is the House result. This figure is about to become either much more real or much less relevant, in exactly one week.
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