Early voting concludes on October 30, and Texas turnout figures are already shattering records. In the backdrop of a crucial contest between Ken Paxton and James Talarico for the Texas Senate seat, voters have massively turned out, aware that the outcome could prove historic and shape the remaining years of the Trump administration.
Before diving into the unprecedented numbers from this election cycle, be sure to grab our Kalshi promo code and download the Action Network app to stay ahead with the latest news in political and sports trading.
Texas Early Voting Numbers So Far
To date, more than 5.5 million early votes have been cast, representing roughly 30% of registered texan voters. According to figures reported by NBC News, 45% of registered Republicans and 44% of registered Democrats have already cast their ballots, alongside 11% of unaffiliated or independent voters.
Dallas County set a single-day record for early voting on day one of any election when more than 88,000 people cast ballots. In Hidalgo County, approximately 113,000 people have voted early, accounting for 24% of registered voters, while Cameron County has logged around 54,000 votes, or 22%.
These figures are not just huge, they are dramatically outpacing 2022 turnout levels. In Tarrant County, for instance, more than 50,000 ballots were cast on day one, marking a 21,000-vote surge compared to the 2022 midterms.
The turnout numbers indicate that the 2026 midterms are outpacing presidential election turnout paces across several counties, underscoring the high stakes heading into November 3.
Why Turnout is Running Hot in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant Counties
The record-breaking numbers logged during this early-voting window stem directly from a fiercely contested Texas campaign, sharp volatility across polls and prediction market odds, and the tangible prospect of a historic outcome.
Another striking number is the sheer size of the electorate: with nearly 19 million Texans registered and roughly 30% having already cast ballots, overall turnout is pacing toward an all-time high.
The clash between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico for the Texas Senate seat has emerged as one of the most closely scrutinized races in recent months. Over the course of the cycle, both candidates have taken turns atop prediction market trading boards.
Talarico currently holds the edge with a 69% implied odds, however, the latest surveys suggest the final margin will be anything but comfortable, likely coming down to a handful of percentage points. That leaves two distinct outcomes on the table: either the biggest Democratic breakthrough in Texas since 1988, or the party’s most crushing disappointment of this midterm cycle.
What the Turnout Surge Means for the Senate Odds
Since early voting opened on October 19, Kalshi’s market tracking the Texas Senate race has moved considerably. Over that window, James Talarico’s contract has gained clear momentum, surging from a 61% to a 69% implied probability, a substantial jump down the final stretch of the elections.
However, drawing a direct correlation between surging turnout and shifting market odds would be premature. While historic voter participation warrants close scrutiny, its impact on prediction markets does not guarantee a specific outcome nor a decisive victory for either candidate.
What Texas's record-smashing turnout does make clear is that voters recognize the immense stakes of this midterm cycle, with participation levels outpacing past presidential marks. Both Democrats and Republicans understand that the eventual winner will have a defining influence over the remaining years of the Trump administration.
Key Dates Left in Texas Early Voting
Friday, October 30: Final day of in-person early voting. Polling locations statewide remain open, allowing registered voters to cast ballots at any designated early voting site within their home county.
Tuesday, November 3 (Election Day): Polls open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. local time. Unlike early voting, voters in many non-countywide jurisdictions must report strictly to their assigned precinct. Mail-in ballots must also be postmarked by 7:00 p.m. or hand-delivered to the county elections office before polls close.
