Michigan’s Senate race has been one of the most closely watched contests in the country all year: an open seat, a candidate who’d be the first Muslim elected to the chamber, and a margin thin enough to help decide which party runs it. Then President Donald Trump made the final stretch personal. Election Day is closing in, and the uncertainty around the race keeps growing.
Abdul El-Sayed’s odds of winning Michigan’s open Senate seat sat in the mid-70s on Kalshi for most of October. Then Trump escalated his attacks on the Democratic nominee, and the number moved within hours. Here’s exactly how much it moved… and what’s happened to the race since.
El-Sayed Michigan Senate Odds After Trump’s Attacks
The night before El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers met for their first debate on Oct. 8, Trump posted about El-Sayed on Truth Social, mocking his middle name and branding him an extremist without offering evidence.
Then, within hours of the debate ending, Trump posted again, just after midnight, writing that “Mohammad is a Jihadist lunatic” who hated the country. It wasn’t the last word, either: he kept up similar rhetoric through a combative Oct. 21 debate and a rally on Oct. 25, where he tied El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood and invoked the 9/11 attacks. El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim elected to the Senate if he wins, has repeatedly denied any such ties.
The backlash wasn’t limited to Democrats, either: a founder of the group Arab Americans for Trump publicly called the president’s remarks “out of line.” Kalshi’s price for El-Sayed, which had held in the mid-70s through most of the fall, slid to around 67% in the days surrounding the debate.
How Much the Market Actually Moved
The timeline suggests the pre-debate post, the debate itself, and the post-debate attack all played a part rather than any single one driving the whole move. El-Sayed’s number had already started drifting down before the candidates took the stage in Grand Rapids, then kept falling once Trump piled on right after.
| Date | Kalshi (El-Sayed) | Polymarket (El-Sayed) |
| Early October | Mid-70s | Mid-70s |
| Oct. 17 | 68% | 71% |
| Oct. 29 | 71% | 73% |
He’d lost ground. He hadn’t lost the edge.
What stands out is where the number sits now. Despite Trump’s sharpest attacks yet at the Port Huron rally, El-Sayed’s price has actually climbed back since mid-October, and both markets now show him above where he landed right after the debate. The first wave of attacks clearly moved the market. The second one, so far, hasn’t moved it the same way.
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What Rogers Needs to Close the Gap
The odds don’t capture how tight this race actually is on the ground. A few numbers explain why:
- Outside groups have outspent El-Sayed’s side by close to 2-to-1 on advertising.
- Rogers lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by just under 20,000 votes out of millions cast statewide.
- Michigan hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate in more than three decades.
Rogers doesn’t need a landslide to flip this seat. He needs roughly the same margin he already came within reach of two years ago.
If you’re tracking how the odds have shifted this week, don't forget to visit Prediction Pro and our midterms predictionsfor more political content.
Michigan Senate Odds Through Nov. 3
Early in-person voting opened statewide on Oct. 24 and runs through Nov. 1, and more than 1.3 million Michigan voters had already cast a ballot as of days before Election Day. Both the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets resolve by winning party on Nov. 3, when polls close and Michigan picks a successor to retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Until then, expect the number to keep moving with whatever either candidate, or the president, says next.
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