Election Day is just days away, and all eyes are on the midterms results. But there's another number worth watching: Donald Trump's approval rating has been sliding for months, and prediction markets are now doing something individual surveys can't; putting a live, constantly updating number on exactly how low it goes before the year is out.
Trump Approval Odds Right Now
Trump's approval rating is sitting at 38.4% right now, according to Kalshi's daily tracking contract, which resets each morning and settles against RealClearPolitics' rolling average. It's barely moved in a week, holding in the high-37%-to-38% band that's defined the fall.
That daily print tends to run a few points warmer than individual surveys:
| Source | Reading | Date |
| Kalshi (RCP average) | 38.4% | Oct. 29 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 31% | Oct. 19 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 32% | Oct. 26 |
| NYT/Siena | 36% | Oct. 21 |
RCP folds in a wider mix of pollsters, including some that lean more favorable, which explains why its average still sits several points above where the sharpest individual polls have Trump.
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Why Traders Are Watching the 37% Line
Trump's approval has already broken through some of the lines traders were watching. On Polymarket's "How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" market, the brackets for below 40% and below 37% have both already resolved "Yes", the average touched both levels this year, with the below-37% contract trading as high as 69% before that happened.
The live trading now sits one rung down. "Below 36%" is the current favorite at 74%, priced as more likely than not to join the resolved list before Dec. 31. Confidence drops fast from there: "below 35%" sits at just 26%, "below 34%" at 18%, and the remaining lower brackets are all down in the single digits. Getting the average that low would mean sustained weakness beyond what even his roughest polls have shown so far: possible, but not yet likely.
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How the Midterms Could Push Approval Lower — or Not
Speaking on The Ezra Klein Show this week, pollster Nate Silver argued that Trump is treating the midterms as a referendum on his own presidency, pointing to the president's own line on the trail, "pretend I'm on the ballot." Silver questioned that strategy given Trump's current numbers, comparing his position to George W. Bush's after Republicans lost badly in 2006: even traditionally safe red states look competitive this cycle, Silver said that "Kansas is competitive, Texas is competitive", and warned that a bad night for Republicans could leave Trump a "super-lame duck" well before his term is up.
All of this lands days before voters decide who controls Congress. Republicans are defending both chambers on Nov. 3, and the same Reuters/Ipsos poll that had Trump at 32% also found Democrats ahead by 11 points on the generic ballot, 47% to 36%. A bad night for Republican candidates could feed straight back into approval polling.
That link isn't automatic, though. Job approval is a rolling average built from weeks of surveys, while a midterm is one day's vote, and the two have drifted apart before: a party has lost badly at the polls while a president's approval stayed flat. Whatever happens Nov. 3, it will take another week or two of polling to show up in the RCP number.
If you’re tracking how the odds have shifted this week, don't forget to visit Prediction Pro and our midterms predictionsfor more political content.
What Happens If Approval Keeps Falling
A softer approval number tends to ripple into the markets built around it. Polymarket's "Balance of Power" contract currently gives Democrats a 67% chance of sweeping the House and Senate, against 28% for a split outcome with Republicans holding the Senate, and just 6% for a full Republican sweep; a Democratic sweep that's climbed noticeably as Trump's numbers have softened.
It's also shaping the earliest pricing on who leads the party once Trump's term ends. Polymarket's 2028 Republican nomination market has JD Vance out front at 38%, with Marco Rubio a distant second near 18%; numbers likely to keep shifting as results come in.
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