Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket think Texas, after more than three decades of Republicans holding every statewide office, could be ready to turn blue with James Talarico, at least in the Senate race. But traditional polling tells a tighter story. And with several of the state’s largest counties posting record early voting numbers, almost anything could happen on Election Day.
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Texas Senate odds today: Talarico’s price after the weekend
Not much has changed in the past few days, which is why the trend across prediction markets holds steady: Democrats remain favored to win the Senate, and Talarico remains favored to win his race in Texas.
- Kalshi: Talarico 65% (+2 pts in a week), Paxton 35%; more than $44 million traded, one of the heaviest totals for any state race on the platform.
- Polymarket: Talarico 64% (flat on the day, +2 pts in a week), Paxton 36% (down from 40% a week ago).
The national picture is steadier: Polymarket prices Democrats at 65% to control the Senate, down a point on the day but up a point from a week ago, with Republicans at 36%.
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Trump to rally in Corpus Christi and Lubbock on Tuesday; Vance heads to Weatherford
In a race this close, President Donald Trump returns to Texas Tuesday for 2 rallies meant to lift Paxton’s closing push, in Corpus Christi and at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center on Tuesday. JD Vance has his own Texas date, headlining a rally in Weatherford on Thursday. Their appearances could end up mattering before voting closes.
Also new- the latest on the Alaska Senate Race is here.
Talarico and Paxton split West Texas: where each candidate is today
Talarico is in El Paso, while Paxton opens a statewide “Come and Take It” tour in Amarillo. Their paths cross Tuesday, when Talarico swings through Midland, Amarillo and Lubbock the same day Trump lands in the Panhandle. Paxton’s tour continues through Abilene, Beaumont and Houston before wrapping up in Fort Worth on Saturday.
That both campaigns are burning this much gas in West Texas and the Panhandle (ground Republicans haven’t had to fight for in decades) says a lot about how tight this has gotten. Neither side is conceding an inch this close to Election Day.
Latest Texas Senate polls: Fox and Rasmussen ties, Emerson and CBS leads
This is shaping up to be close enough that analysts see it as nearly a toss-up. RealClearPolitics has Talarico ahead by a point and a half, 48.4% to 46.9%, as of Oct. 21, but the picture shifts depending on the poll:
- Fox News and Rasmussen: tied
- CBS News: Talarico +2
On the money side, Talarico has out-raised Paxton $68.6 million to $19.5 million overall, though a $158 million infusion from Elon Musk’s super PAC has kept Paxton competitive on the airwaves. The question is whether that money turns into votes for either candidate.
Texas early voting: record turnout with four days left
Early voting runs through Friday, and Texas is on pace for turnout rarely seen in a midterm. Several of the state’s biggest counties are posting their best early-voting numbers in years, tracking well ahead of 2022. Texas doesn’t register voters by party, though, so the surge alone doesn’t say which way the electorate is leaning: just that more people plan to have a say.
If you want to read more about the midterms, check out our midterms predictions and don't forget to visit Prediction Pro.
Why the odds and the polls differ in Texas
A two-point polling lead and a 65% market price aren’t measuring the same thing. Polls capture likely voters within a margin of error that, in several surveys, is as wide as the gap itself.
A market price estimates the odds of winning, folding in turnout, money and how similar races have broken before, so a tied poll and a clear market favorite can both be accurate.
Moderate Republicans and a Libertarian: the voters who could decide the race
Two blocs could decide the race. Texas Southern University found that a meaningful slice of self-identified moderate Republicans plan to back Talarico, while a University of Houston poll shows Paxton with a clear edge in rural Texas.
Libertarian Ted Brown is drawing 1% to 3%, and Kimball said that swing matters: if his support fades, those voters likely break for Paxton; if it holds, Talarico benefits.
