Joe Biden’s VP Pick Odds: Kamala Harris Has 63% Implied Probability To Be His Running Mate

Credit:

JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris

Jul 30, 2020, 10:00 AM EDT

Odds To Be Joe Biden’s VP Pick

Candidate Odds Implied Probability
Kamala Harris -175 63.7%
Susan Rice +333 23.1%
Karen Bass +1000 9.1%
Tammy Duckworth +1300 7.7%
Elizabeth Warren +1400 6.7%
Val Demings +2000 4.7%
Michelle Obama +2500 3.8%
Gretchen Whitmer +3300 2.9%
Hillary Clinton +3300 2.9%
Keisha Lance Bottoms +6600 1.5%

Odds as of July 30 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Susan Rice’s +333 odds mean a $100 bet would net $333 if she’s the Democratic VP nominee. Note that implied probabilities include the juice (or “tax”) the book adds so they are not out of 100%.


It’s been 120 days since we started tracking the Democratic vice presidential nominee odds, and for all 120 days, Kamala Harris has been the favorite.

Now with Joe Biden’s self-assigned deadline to announce his running mate in the first week of August nearly here, Harris has her most favorable odds yet: At -175, the betting market gives her a 63.7% implied probability of joining Biden’s ticket.

There’s only one other potential candidate with odds that translate to better than 10% implied probably: Susan Rice.

After being near the bottom of the oddsboard in the spring, Rice’s odds were as short as +260 (27.8%) in mid-July. The former national security advisor has lost some traction since, though, now sitting at +333 (23.1%).

The respective movements of Harris’ and Rice’s odds reflect recent change in Smarket’s prediction market data, which had Harris gaining 20 percentage points (33% to 53%) and Rice losing 13 (32% to 19%) over the span of 48 hours after Biden’s notes on the candidates on his short list were photographed.


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Past Vice Presidential Odds Updates

July 22

One candidate to be the Democratic vice presidential nominee has seen their odds surge over the past month.

Susan Rice, former National Security Advisor to the Obama administration, has seen her implied probability of being Joe Biden’s running mate nearly double from 14.29% to 27.28% since June 24. At +260, Rice has the second-best odds to be Biden’s pick, behind only Kamara Harris.

While Harris’ odds have lengthened over the past few weeks, she still has a 50% implied probability of being the selected nominee, maintaining her position as the favorite since we started tracking this market in April.

Biden is expected to name his running mate in the run-up to the Democratic National Convention in mid-August.

July 15

Joe Biden’s self-assigned deadline to name a vice presidential running mate by August 1 is fast approaching.

Kamala Harris has maintained her position as the betting favorite since we started tracking these odds on April 1, when she had a 42.2% implied probability of being the pick. While she’s back down to 50% after peaking at 55.6% in late June, the senator still has a significant edge over the candidate with the next-best odds: Susan Rice, former National Security Advisor to the Obama administration, who has a 20% implied probability.

Rice’s odds have shortened from 6-1 to 4-1 as Harris’ have lengthened from 4-5 to even over the past three weeks.

June 24

Kamala Harris’ odds to be Joe Biden’s running mate keep rising as issues of systemic racism continue to hold the national spotlight nearly a month after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

Since June 1, Harris’ implied probability to be the Democratic VP pick has risen from 42.2% to 55.6% — a big increase in a little longer than three weeks. In fact, since we started tracking these odds on April 1, Harris has seen a 20.9% bump in implied probably to be the candidate.

Harris famously challenged Biden on his record of opposing the practice of desegregation busing early in the primary cycle. And although her own record as former California attorney general has undergone plenty of public scrutiny, Harris has taken center stage as Congress attempts to confront racial bias in law enforcement, emerging as a leader in the Democrats’ efforts to block the Republican’s police bill this week after calling it “empty.”

Demings, a former Orlando police chief, has also seen her odds grow significantly over the past month. The congresswoman now representing Florida’s 10th congressional district has emerged with the second-best odds at 5-1, giving her a 16.7% implied probability.

Susan Rice, a former National Security Advisor to the Obama administration, has the only other odds shorter than 10-1.

June 1

As the U.S. continues to grapple with the fallout of George Floyd’s death, it’s of little surprise that the candidate who has publicly challenged Joe Biden on race issues has emerged as the clear favorite to be his running mate.

Kamala Harris, who called out Biden for once opposing the practice of school desegregation busing during a Democratic primary debate last June, is now the +138 betting favorite to be the vice presidential pick.

Harris has been favored since we started tracking these odds two months ago, but her implied probability has improved from 34.7% on April 1 to 42.2% on June 1 — a 7.5% bump.

The California senator has been openly critical of the current administration’s response to the ongoing protests in the wake of Floyd’s death, and joined one in front of the White House over the weekend.

May 5

Not much has changed in the Democratic vice presidential odds market since Joe Biden committed to picking a female running mate: Kamala Harris is still the favorite.

Since we started tracking this market on April 1, Harris’ odds have remained in the +150 to +188 range — her current +175 odds give her a 36.36% implied probability to be the Democratic VP candidate.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren has seen her odds rise dramatically over the past three weeks, improving from a 9.09% implied probability (+1000 odds) to 18.18% (+450). The uptick could be a result of Biden’s recent reference to himself as a “transition candidate,” implying that he could serve only one term if elected, potentially positioning his VP pick as the party’s next frontrunner.

April 13

Between Bernie Sanders dropping out of the race and Joe Biden’s pledge to pick a female running mate, women are dominating the top of the vice presidential odds board.

Kamala Harris has the best odds at +150, giving her a 40% implied probability of being Biden’s running mate.

According to the odds, three others have implied probabilities of higher than 10%: Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar and former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams. Whitmer’s odds have risen from +1000 (9.09% implied probability) to +500 (16.67%) over the past two weeks with her national visibility growing as she battles her state’s coronavirus outbreak.

April 1

With Joe Biden — a heavy betting favorite to win the Democratic nomination with -714 odds (87.72% implied probability) — vowing to select a female running mate, international sportsbooks have set odds for their vice presidential nominee markets accordingly.

Kamala Harris, who endorsed Biden after dropping out of the 2020 race, is favored to be the Democratic VP pick with +188 odds (34.72% implied probability) at European sportsbook Betfair. The California senator is followed by Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar at +300 odds (25%) then former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams at +400 odds (20%).

At PointsBet Australia, odds to be the exact Democratic ticket further support that trio representing the top-three options. A Biden-Harris ticket has the best odds at +185 (35.09% implied probability), a Biden-Klobuchar ticket is listed at +340 odds (22.73%) and a Biden-Abrams ticket is available at +500 odds (16.67%).

It’s worth noting that there are more than 50 different potential Democratic VP nominees listed at BetFair — we highlighted only 11 with +3300 odds or better as of April 1 above — so we’ll continue to monitor the news and how it shifts this betting market in the coming weeks.

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@katiesrichcreek

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