The opening round of Group games at the 2026 World Cup has concluded with the United States and Australia set to square off on Friday afternoon to kick off the second wave of matches. Polymarket has been leading the way in prediction markets, with a FIFA World Cup winner prediction that drew massive attention for huge contract trades and wins on social media. We're hoping to add to the pile with our picks on their top available World Cup markets.
Below, I will recap the first week of action and touch upon the best ways to bet both the ‘Golden Ball’ and ���Nation of Top Goalscorer’ Futures’ markets as we head into the second week of play.
World Cup 2026 Pick: France (32 cents)
It’s no surprise to see France atop the ‘Nation of Top Goalscorer’ futures market following the World Cup’s first week of play as Les Bleus’ superstar center forward Kylian Mbappe put on an absolute masterclass in the team’s 3-1 victory over Senegal on Tuesday afternoon. After a scoreless first half for France, with Mbappe only having managed one touch in the opposition half in the match’s first 45 minutes, coach Didier Deschamps made some adjustments in the team’s attack placing Michael Olise into a central role.
France’s locker room adjustments paid off big time as Olise split the Senegalese backline with a beauty of a diagonal through ball through the center of the box that led to Mbappe burying one into the corner of the net. In the 96th minute of stoppage time, the France star received the ball from 30 yards out and unleashed a spectacular strike that finessed its way past Mendy (Senegal ) into the corner of the net.
Not only was this Mbappe’s 14th World Cup goal despite the 27-year-old having played in just 15 matches, but he also became France’s all-time leading goalscorer with 58 international goals having surpassed Olivier Giroud’s previous record.
While you can buy shares on France to be the ‘Nation of the Top Goalscorer’ at 32 cents on Polymarket, this begs the question- what is the best way to extract the most value from the World Cup’s goalscoring futures’ markets? In this case, you can also buy shares on Kylian Mbappe to be awarded the World Cup’s “Golden Ball” given to the tournament’s top scorer at a far superior 18 cents.
It is very unlikely for France’s top goalscorer to be anyone aside from Mbappe, so in this particular case backing the Les Bleus’ star in the ‘Golden Ball’ market is definitely the better approach from a value perspective.
That said, this is not necessarily the case for every single team so a deeper look beyond the surface is required to determine which World Cup futures’ market is the best one to target on a case-by-case basis.
Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Kylian Mbappe
World Cup 2026 Pick: Argentina (24 cents)
As we enter the second wave of matches in the 2026 World Cup, Argentina currently sits as the second-favorite to be the ‘Nation of the Top Goalscorer’ futures market following after a remarkable hat-trick scored by the world’s premier footballer in Lionel Messi. In Argentina’s 3-0 victory over Algeria on Tuesday night, Messi found the back of the net in the 18th minute of the match followed by two more in the second half to tie Germany’s Miraslov Klose for the most goals in World Cup history.
You can buy shares of Argentina to be the nation of the tournament’s top goalscorer at 24 cents on Polymarket, which is most definitely a possibility following Messi’s historic three-goal performance for La Albiceleste. Though, like France, this is far from the best value-approach considering you can also buy shares of Messi in the ‘Golden Ball’ futures’ market at just 17 cents which is a significantly better price.
The need to distinguish between these two markets is vital for Argentina like it was for France, and is perhaps even more extreme given the fact it is extremely unlikely for any other player on the team to surpass Messi as the nation’s top goalscorer. The likelihood of another Argentina player finding the back of the net more frequently than Messi was slim even prior to Tuesday’s hat-trick, and this sentiment is obviously even more apparent following the 38-year-old’s performance versus Algeria.
Like Mbappe, you can extract far more value by targeting Messi in the ‘Golden Ball’ futures market as opposed to backing Argentina to be the nation of the tournament’s top scorer.
On Polymarket, there is a considerable edge in buying shares of Messi to be awarded the ‘Golden Ball’ at 17 cents versus a far worse 24 cents on Argentina in the ‘Nation of Top Goalscorer’ market.
World Cup 2026 Pick: Norway (11 cents)
Norway has far-and-away the biggest perceived market edge when considering the option to buy shares of them in the ‘Nation of Top Goalscorer’ futures market versus backing Løvene superstar striker Erling Haaland in the ‘Golden Ball’ market. While many were skeptical about Norway’s being too one-dimensional to make a deep run in the 2026 World Cup, Haaland put those fears to rest on Tuesday afternoon in an exceptional two goal performance in the team’s 4-1 victory over Iraq.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, targeting Norway in the ‘Nation of Top Goalscorer’ market objectively makes no sense whatsoever when you consider how the team’s entire attack is built upon getting Haaland the ball around the box.
Like both France and Argentina, Norway’s first match successfully re-affirmed the notion that the team’s premier player on the pitch will go on to lead its scoring efforts on the offensive half.
In addition to Haaland’s status as arguably the best goal scorer on the entire planet, there is simply no stretch of the imagination resulting in Norway making a deep run in this tournament without its premier attacker leading the team in goals. While you can buy shares of Norway in the ‘Nation of Top Goalscorer’ futures market at 11 cents on Polymarket, the far better option is to target Haaland in the ‘Golden Ball’ market at 4 cents which is quite a sizable price differential.
Norway is far from my preferred option in either of these World Cup futures’ markets, but if Løvene does spark your interest to make a run into the later rounds of this tournament then you are better off simply buying shares on Haaland to be awarded the Golden Ball.
World Cup 2026 Value Pick: USA (3 cents)
If you read my breakdown of the ‘Team USA’s Top Goal Scorer’ futures’ market for Action Network prior to the start of the World Cup, you would know how high I was on American centre-forward Folarin Balogun heading into the tournament – playing him at +380 to lead the team in goals. The 24-year-old more than impressed in his World Cup debut as the US Mens’ National Team’ (USMNT) dazzled in a 4-1 dominant victory over Group D-foe Paraguay.
After an early blunder by Paraguay having allowed an own goal in just the 7th minute of the match, Balogun found the back of the net for Team USA’s next two. Folarin showed an absolute masterclass on off-ball movement, capitalizing in transition and best-of-all the young American’s exceptional composure around the box.
Balogun is amongst the best in the world at finding gaps in the opposing team’s backline, in this case using his keen eye and spatial-awareness in finding a structural gap left by Paraguay’s centre-backs. The AS Monaco star saw an opportunity to be the trailing option to Pulisic who delivered a beauty back to Balogun who calmly buried the ball into the bottom-corner of the net in the 31st minute.
The American’s next goal really showed his remarkable versatility on the pitch boasting exceptional footwork right at the end of the head into the half with a 3-0 lead. Folarin shot the center gap and received a through-ball in the penalty area shifting the ball to his less dominant left-foot to gain separation, and delivering a heat-seeking finesse shot into the top-left corner.
After Team USA’s opening victory over Paraguay, Balogun remains tied-for-second for most goals in the World Cup thus far trailing just Argentina’s Messi who netted three in the team’s 3-0 first match victory over Algeria. That said, while the first three nations I touched upon marked a definitive edge in buying shares in the tournament’s ‘Golden Ball’ market as opposed to ‘Nation of the Top Goalscorer’, the same notion does not necessarily ring true for the United States.
Though Balogun looked phenomenal in the team’s opener finding the back of the net twice, there is a far greater chance in another American player surpassing him in scoring compared to that of France, Argentina and Norway. USMNT Forward Christian Pulisic was the outright favorite to lead the team in scoring prior to the start of the 2026 World Cup with a rather substantial contributing factor being the fact he remains the American’s preferred option for PKs.
Given that fact, there is still a big chance that Pulisic could surpass Balogun in scoring if the United States is to make a run into the later rounds of the tournament.
Coincidentally, you can buy shares of both the United States to be the ‘Nation of the Top Goalscorer’ and for Folarin Balogun to be awarded the ‘Golden Ball’ at 3 cents on Polymarket. The identical market price of the two pretty accurately reflects that Pulisic could still very well surpass Balogun as the team’s top goalscorer, while that is extremely unlikely to be the case for the first three nations I touched upon.
Though for what it's worth, I definitely still favor Folarin Balogun to lead the USMNT in scoring when it's all said and done.
