AC Milan vs. Torino Odds, Pick | Serie A Betting Preview (Friday, Feb. 10)
Nicolo Campo/Getty. Pictured: Yann Karamoh.
AC Milan vs. Torino Odds
AC Milan Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+118 / -144)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-112 / -112)|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
AC Milan have played their way out of the Serie A title race and nearly out of the top four race with their performances and results since returning from the World Cup break.
They’ve won one, drawn two and lost five in all competitions since returning and haven’t won a single match in their last seven contests as the Rossoneri host Torino in the San Siro on Friday.
Even though Milan won the Scudetto in May, there are calls from fans to sack manager Stefano Pioli with a consequential clash against Tottenham Hotspur also looming in the Champions League on Tuesday to look forward to. Milan have dealt with some injuries and key departures, but they’ve also just regressed hard from their period of over-performance from a finishing variance perspective.
If you’re struggling to create chances, one of the last teams in Italy you want to face is Torino. The defense can’t stay this bad based on past showings and that looks to be more of a blip. But, Milan’s attack still has issues and the under remains the value side on Friday.
AC Milan Struggling to Generate Any Offense
Milan didn’t register a shot until the 59th minute of Sunday’s derby against Inter. They managed just four in total and none of them were high quality chances or even put on target.
The underlying numbers have fallen off a cliff in both directions, but the lack of offensive output is far more concerning. They’ve produced less than 1 xG in four of the last five Serie A matches and failed to score in 120 minutes against Torino in the cup, even despite playing with an extra man for 50 of those minutes.
Milan’s attack always was prone for regression because they may be fourth in shots per 90, but those shots were not always of the highest quality. The team ranked below average in average shot distance in Serie A, fifth in expected threat and fifth in final third entries.
The shape of the attack’s production is a bit more alarming this season than it was last year. They’ve gotten a huge leap in shots per match from Rafael Leão, who was up to 3.5 shots per 90 in the pre-World Cup matches. That’s superstar-level production, but Milan’s attack as a whole didn’t also improve as a result.
That meant the performances around him dipped. Since coming back from the World Cup, Leão has been out of form and has even been dropped by Pioli. He’s produced 1.5 shots per 90 and when he’s not in, the attack has been even worse. It’s a much more Leão-dependent unit this year and he’s in poor form.
Ismael Bennacer is also the best deep lying ball progressor and passer and he’s out with injury. The attacking pieces are disjointed and until he returns, the midfield will have ball progression problems.
Torino Looking For Regression
Torino’s defense has actually been better than the xGA and goals allowed numbers suggest this season. They’ve remained an elite unit by every metric this season except xGA and goals allowed. The defense is top five in box entries allowed, big scoring chances conceded, fourth in set piece defense and third in field tilt.
They’ve conceded the fifth-most xG and fifth-most goals, but Torino are the third-best defense in the league based on my power ratings. Even despite selling their best defender, Bremer, in the offseason, Ivan Jurić has once again coached up a well drilled defensive system with effective pressing when needed.
The attack lost a lot of talent too and has struggled to produce this season. They rank 16th in efficiency of turning box entries into shots and chances because of the lacking quality and usually lacking numbers in the penalty area.
Short of taking advantage of Milan on set pieces — Milan are 12th defensively and Torino are third in xG per set piece — Milan’s defense should hold up okay despite its recent struggles.
AC Milan vs. Torino Pick
This total actually opened at 2.5 with the under at plus money, but it’s been solidly bet down now. There’s plenty of lineup uncertainty, but even if Olivier Giroud and Leão do start on Friday, the attacking problems run deeper than that right now.
Milan won’t have Bennacer back for this match and the attack is quite disjointed now that he is injured. With Leão in poor form, Milan’s attack is closer to that of a league average side in Serie A.
Given Torino’s approach as an underdog and rock solid defense, the under 2.5 is the play at -125 or better. That correlates to Torino +0.5, which I also show value on in this matchup. Milan could get right at some point, but this isn’t the spot I’m expecting them to do so.
Pick: Torino +0.5 (-120 or better) | Under 2.5 (-125 or better)
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