Arsenal (17-3-7) and Tottenham Hotspur (7-11-8) will face off today at 11:30 a.m. EST at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England.
Arsenal is favored at a -175 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-125o / -102u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. Tottenham prediction.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Prediction
Pick: Arsenal Moneyline
My Arsenal vs. Tottenham best bet is for Arsenal to win.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -190 | 2.5 -125o / -102u | -175 |
| Tottenham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +130 | 2.5 -125o / -102u | +500 |
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Pick
Pick: Arsenal to Win
This Arsenal vs Tottenham pick hinges on the Gunners' recent dominance in this fixture combined with the home side's dire situation. Arsenal has not lost to their rivals in seven straight competitive matches, with six of those contests ending in a victory. The league leaders possess far more quality across the pitch than a Tottenham squad that sits 16th in the table and has not won a league match in its last eight attempts.
While Arsenal should secure the win, a high-scoring blowout seems unlikely. The last derby finished 4-1, but the underlying data showed a much tighter game, with Arsenal generating just 1.93 expected goals (xG) to Tottenham's 0.07. New Spurs manager Igor Tudor, in his first match, will likely focus on defensive stability to avoid an embarrassing debut. He will want to prevent a shootout with the league leaders.
This points toward a tense and controlled match. Arsenal has won its last three trips to this stadium, and two of those victories came with fewer than five total goals. Given Tottenham's awful home form—only two wins all season—and Arsenal's need for a steady, professional performance, a Gunners victory in a match with a moderate goal count offers the best value.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| 55.6% | 25.0% | 19.4% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | 2.43 | 0.83 |
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Betting Analysis
This derby arrives at a critical juncture for both clubs. For Tottenham, it is Igor Tudor’s first match in charge, a trial by fire against their fiercest rival while the threat of relegation looms. For Arsenal, the pressure to secure a first Premier League title in over two decades is immense, and recent draws against lesser opponents have tightened the race.
The Gunners have a clear edge historically, with an unbeaten streak against Spurs that stretches back seven games. Their last four meetings have all ended in an Arsenal win. While the visitors recently squandered a 2-0 lead against last-place Wolves, their overall form is still formidable, with just one loss in their last 20 competitive fixtures.
Tottenham's problems are deep-rooted. The club has not won a match in the new calendar year and has collected a meager 10 points at home all season. A long list of injuries and suspensions further depletes a squad already low on confidence. Tudor’s tactical preference for a high press may be difficult to implement with the available personnel against a top-tier opponent. The most probable outcome is for Arsenal to control the tempo and capitalize on their superior talent to earn a vital three points on the road.
