Arsenal (17-3-6) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (1-19-6) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton.
Arsenal is favored at a -350 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-148o / +110u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton prediction.
Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Prediction
Pick: Arsenal to Win, Arsenal to Win Second Half
My Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton best bets are for Arsenal to win the match outright and for Arsenal to win the second half.
Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 2.5 -148o / +110u | -350 |
| Wolverhampton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 2.5 -148o / +110u | +900 |
Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Arsenal Moneyline
Leg 2: Arsenal to Win Second Half
The standard moneyline price for an Arsenal victory offers little value, so this selection provides a more attractive number. The data supports an Arsenal team that finishes games strong. An analysis of Arsenal's Premier League performances shows the Gunners score 1.23 second-half goals per 90 minutes, a significant increase from their 0.69 goal rate before halftime. This suggests a team that makes effective adjustments and wears opponents down.
Wolves appear particularly vulnerable to this pattern. The home side has conceded an identical 24 goals in both the first and second halves this season. This consistent defensive frailty, combined with a dismal record at Molineux, spells trouble. Wolves have won just one home game all season, with two draws and ten losses. They have conceded the most home goals (28) in the league while also scoring the fewest (11).
With a four-point gap over Manchester City at the top of the standings, Arsenal has every motivation to secure a dominant win. The visitors have accumulated more points (24) than any other Premier League team over the last 11 matches and should have the quality to control this game from start to finish, particularly after the break.
Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9% | 20.6% | 11.5% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | 2.39 | 0.59 |
Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Betting Analysis
This match presents a classic top versus bottom scenario. For Arsenal, three points are essential to maintain their advantage in the title race. For Wolves, the season is a lost cause, as projection models give them a 99% chance of relegation. They sit 18 points from safety with only 12 matches left to play.
While the Gunners are clear favorites, the head-to-head history shows that Wolves can make things difficult. The most recent meeting in December was a narrow 2-1 Arsenal win that required a late goal. Arsenal has won the last eight encounters between the clubs, but the previous two victories were by just a single goal. Matches between these two teams tend to be low scoring, with an average of just 2.2 goals over the last five contests.
However, a look at the underlying data reveals why Wolves are in their current predicament. They have significantly underperformed their expected goals against (xGA) total, as they conceded 48 goals from a 38.57 xGA. This points to either poor goalkeeping, bad luck, or a defense that breaks down under pressure. At the other end, they have scored only 16 goals from an expected 23.47 xG. This level of inefficiency is a recipe for disaster against a title contender like Arsenal. If these season-long trends hold, the Gunners should comfortably leave with all three points.
