Arsenal vs Wolves Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Martin Odegaard.
Arsenal vs Wolves Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -400 |
| Wolves Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +490 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Arsenal are in the midst of a historic defensive run at the moment as a club. They’ve conceded just 2.85 xG in their last six matches, including the Premier League and Champions League. The attack has certainly had its ups and downs overall this season, but the market has started to take notice of how dominant the Gunners have been at shutting out opponents.
Arsenal's win at Brentford on Saturday was far from routine as they slogged their way to a 1-0 thanks to a late winner from Kai Havertz. The Gunners then romped past Lens in the Champions League, 6-0. Two more clean sheets to add to the tally.
Next up for Arsenal in the PL is a home match against upstart Wolves, who lost a heartbreaker in West London on Monday night to Fulham, 3-2, on a controversial stoppage time penalty.
Arsenal have allowed two goals in those last six matches in Europe and England, and one of them was also mired in controversy during an away defeat to Newcastle. Despite Arsenal's dominant defense, Wolves can present some different challenges for Mikel Arteta's control-oriented system and find a way onto the scoresheet Saturday.
Here is my Arsenal vs Wolves prediction.
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Arsenal
It's pretty rare in the modern Premier League that Manchester City doesn't have the best defensive numbers in the English top flight. There have been brief stretches where others have outperformed City. Chelsea in the early days under Thomas Tuchel. Newcastle for a brief period last season after the World Cup. Right now, the clear best defense to this point in the season has been Arsenal. Unlike City, Arteta has had his full first choice defense available for almost every match.
The result is that Arsenal have conceded 10.3 xGA, 1.3 less than City and just 0.79 on average. The Gunners rank first in field tilt, first in midfield ball stopping, second in box entries, second in expected threat and first in xG allowed per match. Arsenal haven't been nearly as fluid in attack this season when compared to last, but there's nothing fluky about how dominant they've been at protecting their own goal.
One of Arsenal's biggest question marks is the goalkeeper position itself, as Arteta has rotated between David Raya and Aaron Ramsdale at times. Raya appears to be the No. 1, but Ramsdale played at Brentford and nearly made multiple mistakes with his feet that should have produced a Brentford goal.
Arsenal have scored 26 goals in attack this year from 22 xG and the attack is the unit that has lagged behind. The Gunners' leading scorer has just five (Eddie Nketiah), and they rank 11th in xG produced from open play and seventh in total shots. Most of the game script for Arsenal has been to expect a very low goal environment and see whether the Gunners can push enough chances across the line to score and get margin.
They enter this match week first in the table but even the most bullish Arsenal fan would say the attack hasn't played as well as last season.
Wolves
On the balance of chances across the entire match, Wolves were second-best at Fulham on Monday night. Even with that being said, both penalties they conceded were quite soft and borderline in my view. Losing on a stoppage time penalty is harsh, especially when VAR potentially overstepped to over officiate the match. That loss doesn't overshadow the work that Gary O'Neil has done to resurrect a Wolves attack that finished last season as the worst in the entire Premier League.
Wolves have consistently showed a real threat against the top sides in the league — they beat Spurs and Manchester City, scored in the first 10 minutes against Liverpool and tied Newcastle 2-2. O’Neil’s squad has taken on a similar profile to his Bournemouth one in the second half of last season as an excellent transition side that doesn’t need a ton of possession to do damage.
O’Neil’s Bournemouth scored at Arsenal in seven seconds in the spring. Even playing without star wide forward Pedro Neto in the last two matches, Wolves have sustained quality attacking numbers. They rank 10th in big scoring chances, 12th in build-up completion rate, seventh in xG per set piece and 12th in xG per 90.
Neto is unlikely to return for Saturday, and midfielders Mario Lemina and João Gomes suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Despite their shorthanded status, Wolves improved attacking depth has been a major key toward improved attacking output.
Arsenal vs Wolves
Prediction
Arsenal's dominant run of form does coincide with a relatively friendly run of fixtures. Two home Champions League fixtures against Lens and Sevilla plus Sheffield United and Burnley aren't the most difficult attacks to shut down. The Gunners' defense is elite and now the market is starting to overcorrect for that.
Odds on to keep a clean sheet against a mid-table attacking side like Wolves is too much respect to the Gunners, even at home. I’d bet Wolves to score at -115 or better.
Pick: Wolves Team Total Over 0.5 (-115 or better)
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