Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Predictions, Odds, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
(Photo by Neal Simpson/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images) Pictured: Ollie Watkins
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Predictions
| Aston Villa Odds | -125 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200/ +162 |
These two teams have come a long way since they met on the opening weekend of last season — a 2-0 Bournemouth win at the Vitality Stadium.
Scott Parker and Steven Gerrard, who had their respective sides trending toward the wrong end of the table, are long gone. Unai Emery took over for Gerrard in Birmingham and secured a seventh-place finish last season to get Villa back into Europe, and now has his sights on the Champions League as his team sit in fourth with five matches to play. On the south coast, Gary O'Neil replaced Parker and kept Bournemouth up, and now Andoni Iraola has the Cherries in 13th, on pace to set a club record for points in a Premier League season.
A 2-2 draw was the outcome of the first meeting between these two sides this season, with an Ollie Watkins 90th-minute equalizer earning the Villans a point.
Read on for my Aston Villa vs Bournemouth prediction and Premier League match preview.
Aston Villa
One word to describe Aston Villa of late? Soaring.
They capitalized on Newcastle's 4-0 demolition of Tottenham — their biggest competition for that final Champions League spot — by going to the Emirates and besting Arsenal 2-0 to jump into the top four last Sunday. Then, on Thursday, they earned a ticket to the Europa Conference League semifinals with a shootout win at Lille after Matty Cash leveled the tie on aggregate with an 86th-minute goal.
Despite their historic success, this is a campaign very few Villa fans could imagine happening five years ago, but Unai Emery is making it happen. Their 4-2-4/3-2-5 deep buildup, which frequently uses Emi Martinez as a +1 to beat man-to-man presses, is a well-oiled machine, with every player on the pitch displaying a fantastic understanding of angles and timing of movement. Further up the pitch, Ollie Watkins is mounting a golden boot charge and has recorded 29 league goals and assists, which is tied for the most in the Premier League with Cole Palmer. Villa aren't too bad without the ball either, with their 4-4-2 mid-block and accompanying offside trap stymying opponents all season.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth have been one of the most bipolar teams in England this season. The Cherries started off very slow, and after a 6-1 thrashing at the Etihad at the start of November, they rattled off six wins in seven. Following another lull in January and February, they've grabbed 14 of a possible 21 points from the start of March onward. There's a pretty clear correlation between quality of opponent and result for Iraola and co., and that's not really too much of a surprise given their tactical ethos.
For one, Iraola is one of the most aggressive out-of-possession managers in the league. He sets his team up to press high and go man-to-man in basically every game they play, which works great against the sides that don't have the quality to cope with the pressure and not as well against the sides that do. Additionally, Bournemouth are pretty poor when it comes to settled attacking play and buildup.
In transitions, they can leverage Dominic Solanke's skillset along with the speed and dribbling ability of the wingers to create chances, but the rest of the time they have the ball they're too direct and lack the appropriate tactical and technical nuance to really play better. Against tougher opposition, they both get less transitions because those opponents are more technically secure and also have a harder time building attacks because they're facing better presses. It's not complicated, but it is definitely worth pointing out.
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
Prediction
The dynamics of this match play into Aston Villa's hands. Bournemouth will do whatever it can to create controlled chaos, particularly in counter-pressing situations. But at home, riding a wave of confidence, Villa won't be deterred. Emery's side will dominate the ball and cut through the visitors' press with relative ease.
That, combined with quite a few high turnovers that are sure to arise due to the Cherries' struggles in buildup, means Watkins will pose a massive threat with his runs in behind, especially against a back line that isn't the most stable or mobile. At +195 on FanDuel, I like a same-game parlay of Villa to win with Watkins anytime goalscorer.
Pick: Aston Villa Moneyline + Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer (+195 via FanDuel)
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