The World Cup semifinals conclude today as two of the tournament's biggest heavyweights collide, with England and Argentina facing off at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Our team of experts has three picks for the match, so let's dive into today's England vs Argentina World Cup best bets.
Today's World Cup Best Bets, Expert Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup matchups that our staff is targeting from today's slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
England vs Argentina Team to Advance Pick
There is very little to split these teams going into the semifinal, but England have more depth, and that could make all the difference here. Therefore, we are backing Thomas Tuchel’s team to reach the final.
England needed extra time to beat Norway in the last round, but qualification to the semifinals was deserved. England finished that game with an expected goals (xG) total of 1.04, 0.36 more than Norway, and remain unbeaten in 16 competitive matches under Tuchel. They have won 12 of those games, scoring an average of 2.43 goals while conceding just 0.43 per match.
Jude Bellingham is in fine fettle ahead of this clash. He has scored a brace in each of England’s last two games, easing the attacking burden on Harry Kane. Tuchel now has multiple match-winners he can rely on, which should give England the edge over an Argentina side that remains heavily reliant on Lionel Messi.
Like England’s, Argentina’s quarterfinal also went to extra time. Lionel Scaloni’s side generated just 0.88 xG in normal time against Switzerland despite entering the match as the odds-on favorite. The last time Argentina were odds-against to win, just as they are here, was against Ecuador in September 2025. They were beaten 1-0 on that occasion.
Pick: England To Qualify (-138)
England vs Argentina Goalscorer Pick
The case for backing Lionel Messi is compelling. He enters this match with eight goals, tied for the Golden Boot lead. Before the quarter-final against Switzerland, he had scored in nine consecutive tournament matches.
While that streak ended, he remained a constant threat, registering four attempts on goal. Messi has consistently outperformed his expected goals (xG) total of 5.27, a testament to his clinical finishing. Facing an England defense that has proven vulnerable in the knockout rounds, Messi is in a prime position to make an impact.
Picks: Lionel Messi Anytime Goalscorer (+140)
England vs Argentina Goalscorer Pick
Jude Bellingham presents significant value. He has been England's most decisive player in the later stages, scoring back-to-back braces against Mexico and Norway to bring his tournament total to six goals. With Harry Kane in a quieter spell, Bellingham has shouldered the scoring burden.
His statistics are remarkable; he has converted over 35% of his shots, the highest rate for any player with at least eight attempts. Furthermore, he has scored six goals from an xG of just 2.62, demonstrating an ability to convert difficult chances. In a tight match where opportunities may be scarce, Bellingham's clinical nature makes him a strong pick to score.
Pick: Jude Bellingham Anytime Goalscorer (+260)
